Junk Bonds vs Treasury Bonds
- Posted by JC Parets
- on May 26th, 2011
Charts Updated Friday May 27, 2011 4:30PM
If you’ve been reading Allstarcharts, you know by now that I love my ratio analysis. These days we are always looking for clues to help us determine whether the “Risk-On” trade is dominating the market or if it’s the “Risk-Off” trade that is ruling the stock market world.
Today we are looking at one of the more common sense ratio trades that often gets overlooked: Junk Bonds vs US Treasury Bonds. Why don’t I see more of this? Not sure. But think about it, if big money is looking for yield and is willing to take the “Risk”, they will start buying High Yield Bonds (that’s just fancy nomenclature for “Junk”). If big money wants to be safe and needs somewhere to hide, then the US Treasuries Market is where they like to go. This creates a great Risk-On/Risk-Off ratio that helps us with our every day analysis of US Equities Markets.
Here is a 4-year chart of $HYG vs $IEF (in red) with $SPY behind it (in blue). $HYG is the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Index Fund, representing Junk and $IEF is the iShares U.S. 7-10 Year Treasury Bond index Fund representing Government Debt. Look how well this ratio correlates with the S&P500:
This gives us great insight into the behavior of US Equities. Let’s take a closer look at the 1 year chart of just price action. I would feel much more comfortable being on the Long side of Equities if this ratio can get back above the 50 day Moving Average around 97.5 creating a higher low in the ratio. This would be a positive for stocks in general, but more specifically the aggressive and higher beta names.
More on Risk-On/Risk-Off:
Full Disclosure: Nothing on this site should ever be considered to be advice, research or an invitation to buy or sell any securities, please see my Terms & Conditions page for a full disclaimer.blog comments powered by Disqus
J.C. Parets is the Founder & President of Eagle Bay Capital, LLC. He is a 10-year veteran and Market Technician who actively manages money incorporating Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance into his practice. JC’s work has been featured regularly on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg, Business News Network, Wall Street Journal and Yahoo Finance among many other financial media outlets. More...
- An Open Letter About Today’s Market Environment 11-24-15
- What Is The Value Line Index Telling Us?
- We Don’t Live In An Average World
- Flat 200 Day Moving Averages Create Headaches
- An Open Letter About Today’s Market Environment
- Why Airlines Are Ready For Another Leg Lower
- Is FANG This Cycle’s Four Horsemen?
- Why I Like To Feed The Ducks When I Can
- Here’s Way I think Rates Are Heading Lower
- The Stock Market vs Gambling
Archive by Year