False Move of the Day – US Treasuries?

Keep an eye on this one…..

From False Moves come Fast Moves (in the opposite direction). We know this. We love it. We embrace it.

The triangle looking formation developing over the last 3 months is well defined. Yesterday’s US Treasury ‘breakout’ was short lived. I added some secondary trendlines at the upper and lower boundaries to show the added importance of these levels. Whether you use the extreme highs/lows or you take out the whipsaws and use closing levels, the upper and lower limits are still clear.

Yesterday’s close and October 3rd’s close (52-week highs) were within 6 cents of each other. Last time we were up here $TLT lost 12% over the next 3 weeks.

If it can gain some momentum through the holidays, look for a break below 116 to really get it going to the downside.

I don’t want anything to do with this one as long as it’s trading above 124. Love it lower below that.


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