From WSJ –
The Economic Cycle Research Institute’s weekly index of leading economic indicators has taken another turn for the worse.
The index fell to its lowest level since October 2010, and the rolling 4-week average dropped to -2.1%, the lowest since November 2010.
This doesn’t foretell a recession yet, but suggests hopes of a big second-half rebound from our weak first half (which the ECRI index seemed to foretell) are going to be dashed.
Here is a decade long chart via dshort showing GDP along the way with Recessions shaded in Gray: