I had the opportunity to hang out on the CNBC Fast Money desk for the full hour on Thursday. Here are some of the clips from the show:
Source:
Tags: $AAPL $SPY $TLT $TNX $NEM $GDX
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
I had the opportunity to hang out on the CNBC Fast Money desk for the full hour on Thursday. Here are some of the clips from the show:
Source:
Tags: $AAPL $SPY $TLT $TNX $NEM $GDX
by JC
I think today’s video is a good one. Let me know what you guys think. I thought these were some interesting charts: Russell2000, S&P00, Apple and Emerging Markets.
Check it out:
Tags: $AAPL $SPX $SPY $IWM $RUT $EEM
by JC
I hope everyone is having a nice Memorial Day weekend. A couple of days ago I asked you guys to send me some charts that you wanted me to take a look at. As I mentioned, this is just my little contribution to what I consider to be the greatest community of market participants that this world has ever seen. I received a ton of requests. But between the comments, tweets and emails I would be here for days if I tried to get through all of them. Thanks you so much for all of your interest.
Here is the video I put together trying to get through as many of your charts as possible. We looked at the Russell2000, 10-yr Treasury Yields, Dollar/Yen, Crude Oil, Silver, First Solar, Agricultural commodities, Apple, Baidu and Boeing among others. This is the first time I ever do a video like this so I hope you enjoy it. I know I personally benefited and generated a few trading ideas from it, so I think we all win here.
I excluded any smoothing mechanisms or standard deviation bands and tried to keep this video’s focus on just price and momentum.
Tags: $RUT $IWM $TNX $USDJPY $FXY $SI_F $CL_F $FSLR $MNST $LNKD $AAPL $SPY $SPX $JJG $DBA $RJA $BA $BIDU
by JC
We’re now well into year number three for allstarcharts. It’s crazy to me that I can say that. It feels like just yesterday Phil was showing me how to use wordpress. Now I can embed videos and tag tickers and everything. I’m so tech savvy now…. I’m really not at all.
Lately I’ve been receiving a lot more emails and tweets thanking me for my blog posts and contributions to the stream. I don’t get to respond to all of them unfortunately, so I wanted to take this time to really thank all of you guys for your support and comments. It really means a lot to me.
The truth is that my blog posts and tweets are the least I can do. All I’m really doing is trying my best to give back the greatest community of market participants this world has ever seen. Through social communities like StockTwits, I am able to consume and learn so much more than I can ever contribute. It’s not even close.
So for the first time ever, I’m taking charting requests from readers and twitter followers. Email me, ping me, tweet at me, direct message me, text me, or any of the other various forms of communication that we have at our disposal. I’ll post a video this weekend with in depth analysis of anything you guys want me to look at: stocks, commodities, currencies, pairs, whatever. I’ve never done this before so I’m not sure how it will all come out. But there’s only one way to find out.
I appreciate all the recent emails and tweets, but the real thank you goes to you guys. So if I can take a look at some charts for you, then that’s just a little bit more that I can contribute to the awesome network that we’ve all built together over the years. Let’s all try to keep up the good work. We’re all learning every day from each other and that’s awesome. No one ever in human history has had this much access to such great minds. Let’s not take that for granted and let’s appreciate every day that we have together.
Anything but $AAPL and $SPX please….let’s try to be a little bit more creative!
by JC
There are a couple of underperforming areas that have caught my attention this week. One of them is technology and the other is emerging markets. These two have been serial underperformers for a while now. When the Apple bubble popped in September, its outsized weighting has dragged the tech space down ever since, specifically on a relative basis. Emerging markets peaked on the first day of the year and have been trading lower for 4 months, both on an absolute basis and relative to S&Ps.
The two charts I have today are ratios against the S&P500. The first one is the SPDR Technology Sector ETF ($XLK) vs the S&P500 ETF ($SPY). This ratio has been getting crushed since the September peak in $AAPL, but is just now trying to turn the corner. The spread has finally broken its downtrend line and is now working on making its first higher high:
The second chart is the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF ($EEM) vs the S&P500 ETF ($SPY). Same thing: big long downtrend, this time since December, just now breaking its downtrend line and attempting to make a higher high:
Now, something important to keep in mind is that just because a trendline is broken doesn’t mean that the trend has reversed. Generally we can expect that at least a sideways market should ensue. Whether these two markets actually reverse and begin heading higher is still up in the air. But I think these trendline breaks along with positive momentum divergences are definitely worth noting.
This goes back to whether or not the institutional money is rotating back into the underperforming areas of the market. There are two schools of thought: One of them is that since Defensive areas have led this year, while tech, materials and really anything “global growth” related has underperformed, this is a sign of trouble ahead. But the other view would argue that money can flow back into these underperforming areas, sending major market averages even higher. Two of these areas are Tech and Emerging markets. You can argue that if EM heads higher, materials and industrials should follow as well.
So these are really two key areas that we want to watch here short-term.
Tags: $XLK $SPY $SPX $EEM
by JC
Phil and I had a nice little chat on google hangout this afternoon.
We discussed Europe, Yen, US Stocks and Apple:
Check it out:
Related Posts Mentioned:
Where Do We Panic? (March 21, 2013)
What Do We Do With Apple? (March 15, 2013)
Is Apple Stock About To Crash? (September 10, 2012)
Tags: $EURUSD $FXE $USDJPY $AAPL $FXY
by JC
Remember last summer when you couldn’t think of a single person that didn’t KNOW that Apple was going higher? Those were good times.
It’s rare to find such euphoria in an asset class. And yes at the time Apple was actually considered an asset class. Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Apple. How funny is that? People used to say it all the time, and no one would laugh. They would just nod and agree like it was common knowledge. True story.
Anytime I would say anything negative about it, the cult following would send me hate mail and call me names. That doesn’t happen when I write or tweet something about US Steel. So you want confirmation of a bubble? See the comment section here.
Anyway, back to today. Every single bottom fisherman in this stock has been wrong. Unless of course you were in and out very quickly for a trade. But any “investor” in this name since the Fall has been wrong. Really wrong. But this gap from last January that we’ve been watching during this whole crash finally got filled this month. So is that enough to create a bottom that we’ll be able to point to months or even years from now?
Here is a daily bar chart of the now infamous Apple. The green support line represents the gap fill from last January. I suppose this is a logical area where one can potentially start looking for an entry point:
The next chart shows two very important downtrend lines that are both still intact. The first, and probably the most important one, comes from the absolute top back in September and down through the December and January highs. You will also notice a very steep dotted line that represents the 50 day moving average. The severity of this downward slope tells the story well about how bad this name has really been. The second trendline is drawn a little bit thicker to represent the 2013 downtrend. Yes, 2013 downtrend – apple lost 20% this year as the rest of the stock market obnoxiously explodes to all-time high territory. How does it feel to be an apple shareholder now?
Next up is the very important momentum reading in apple. This is what really got me bearish in September: the fact that while apple was putting in all-time highs, momentum was rolling over on the daily chart, rolling over on the weekly chart, and also rolling over on the relative strength chart – all at the same time. The 3 amigos.
Here is the daily chart showing some slight divergences on the most recent lows this year. These aren’t super pronounced, but I can’t say they’re not there either. I’m just not that excited enough about them to go long this name just because of this:
The Momentum oscillator we’re using here is a 14-period RSI. Here is a weekly version of the same thing not showing any divergences. It’s really just getting into oversold conditions and reiterating to us that Apple is in a bear market. Thanks, but I think we get it.
And finally here is the relative chart of Apple vs the S&P500. Man has this pair gotten crushed:
I just don’t see any evidence yet that this thing will start to outperform S&Ps (yet). At least not for a sustained period of time. I’ve heard some bottom callers in this name both on an absolute basis and on a relative basis. But I just don’t see it yet, I’m sorry. Look at RSI on the relative chart against S&Ps. This is pure unadulterated bear market behavior.
So getting back to pure price, here is a close up of the second chart up above with the downtrend lines drawn. To me, this recent consolidation since the March 4th “Gap-fill low” off 419 just looks too much like a bear flag as it runs into this downtrend line.
So here’s what the bulls want to see. Because I’m not bullish or bearish. In fact I couldn’t care less which way apple trades. I don’t care about their balance sheet. I don’t care about how many iPhones they sell or don’t sell. Clearly the market didn’t care about any of these things back in September – so why should I?
A big number to me is 440. This level would take out the first downtrend line which would open up the doors towards the longer-term downtrend line off the absolute top. The second thing it would do is take out the neckline from that head and shoulders looking thing in February. And most importantly, it would leave these recent bears trapped below 440, which could cause a little bit of a squeeze in the name.
I’m not super thrilled about this one. I think there are a lot better setups out there, on both the long and the short side. But I think this post describes my thoughts on apple pretty accurately. I get asked about this stock constantly, so I figured I do a follow up post from bad news I had last time. I wish it didn’t have to be this way. But Mr. Market does a good job of punishing late longs and bubble chasers. And unfortunately for apple “shareholders”, the only thing that is going to cure this crash is time, a lot of it. We may never see those all-time highs ever again. In fact, chances are that we don’t. And if we do, it will be a long time from now.
This is trade, that’s all it is. And I think it will continue to be just that (both long & short) for some time.
Tags: $AAPL $SPY
by JC
Tuesday night I had the pleasure of attending this month’s New York Chapter meeting for the Market Technicians Association. Chris Verrone, Head of Technical Analysis at Strategas, was this month’s guest speaker. I wanted to share a few things he brought up that I think are important.
First thing is that he seemed extremely bullish on US Equities. Verrone isn’t a big fan of price targets, which I can appreciate, but definitely on the bullish side. Although he admitted not being in the camp that this is the beginning of the next secular bull market for US Stocks, he pointed out that nobody thinks that. He asked the audience who believed we were already in the next secular bull, and 1 person raised their hand.
When talking about this recent move in the Nikkei, Verrone showed a plot graph comparing previous rallies in the Nikkei throughout history. And although everyone is in awe right now with what’s happening in Japan, the graph showed how normal this recent move has been. In fact, when compared to the up move between 2003-2007, this is really nothing. It’s not even close. Also he pointed out that he believes every single wall street desk missed this move. So there are still plenty of potential buyers out there that have not participated.
Treasuries were an interesting topic as well. He said that he has given this a lot of thought – whether the US Government was manipulating the bond market, and therefore some of the intermarket relationships. And he made some good points. Think about a big hedge fund, PTJ or Stanley Druckenmiller buying so much Intel that it drives it through resistance and to new highs. How this any different than what the US is doing with bonds? They are technically buyers right? So they are market participants at the end of the day. Valid point I thought.
I think that his process of analyzing the market makes a lot of sense. Verrone’s favorite habit is to rip though every single stock chart all at once. It usually takes him 5-6 hours. And when the pile of good charts is bigger than the pile of bad ones, he leans bullish. When the bad pile gets bigger, he gets more bearish. I definitely appreciate the simplicity of that thought process.
From a sentiment perspective, I agree with him that we should be a bit more creative than just looking at surveys. There’s a lot of noise when it comes to these things and they’re really much more valuable and indicative when they reach extremes. Newspaper headlines and general conversations are a great place to look as well. He pointed to the lack of bullish headlines lately as markets make all-time highs.
Within the US Stock Market, Verrone sees strength continuing to come from Healthcare and some of the insurance companies within the financial space. Although REITs have had a great decade, he’s a better seller than a buyer there these days. He also brought up a chart of how many times a specific stock is mentioned in news articles. Apple still rules although the stock has been crushed. He doesn’t see a bottom here and laughed at how many people stopped what they were doing last time they reported earnings to watch the screen for a few minutes. It reminded him of the OJ Trial and how everyone remembers what they were doing at that moment. I thought that was funny. Also Google, gets much less mentions, but is making all-time highs and coming out of a multi-year base. Symantec is another name bullishly coming out of a big base that he mentioned several times.
In the intermarket world, he admitted that the lack of strength in Aussie, Kospi and Copper was concerning. He didn’t really have a good answer to that, which is fair. I also asked him about whether the weakness in Europe and the 2013 downtrend in emerging markets bothered him at all. He had a great answer. He said, “listen, if you want to short China – short China. I don’t think that has any impact on Johnson and Johnson”. I can’t argue with that…
So all in all, I thought he gave a great presentation, as expected. If you’re in the New York area and would like to attend any future meetings, make sure to go check out MTA.org and sign up. Also if you have any questions, you can always reach out to me as well.
Tags: $JNJ $AAPL $GOOG $SYMC $NK_F $EEM $HG_F $AUDUSD $XLV $TLT $SPY