Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
The official period for this year’s Santa Claus Rally begins on Monday December 27th.
Remember, the Santa Claus Rally includes the last 5 days of the year, and the first 2 days of the following year. So this year’s SCR starts on Monday Dec 27th and runs through Tuesday Jan 4th.
The first half of December wasn’t the best time for stock investors. But keep in mind that historically, it’s the second half of December that’s the most bullish time of this month for stocks.
So what should we expect for this year’s Santa Claus Rally?
Well, for me it’s less about Santa showing up and more about the implications of him not showing up.
Let me explain. [Read more…]
This is the video recording of our December 1, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
As we make our way through the earlier stages of the most bullish time of the year, who better to talk to than Jeff Hirsch, Author of the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac.
When it comes to Technical Analysis, what we’re doing is analyzing the behavior of the market, and therefore market participants. Seasonality falls under that umbrella and Jeff Hirsch is the ultimate authority on the subject. He’s had a front row seat his entire life to how markets trend during different times of the year.
In this episode, we talk about “The Best 6 months”, the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Commodities Seasonality, and we even get to learn a little more about his father Yale Hirsch, the originator of the Almanac back in the 1960s.
Jeff Hirsch and I have known each other for many years and have hung out in Vegas, New York, San Francisco and hopefully many more fun cities to come in the future. So this was a blast!
I hope you enjoy this as much as I did.
Make sure to follow Jeff on Twitter @AlmanacTrader
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
The January Effect posits that financial markets experience a seasonal anomaly in the beginning of each year whereby stock prices tend to rise more than in any other month.
But this bullish period extends beyond a single month. In fact, our data show that buyers come out in full force starting in the late fall/early winter.
According to historic seasonal trends, the best time of the year for the stock market is from November to January. Smaller stocks are known to outperform during this period.
And if we’re focusing on small-caps, November is by far the single best month. So it should come as no surprise that the Russell 2000 and S&P Mid-Cap 400 are breaking out to fresh all-time highs this week. They did the same thing last November. In fact, November of 2020 was the best month ever for these small- and mid-cap indexes.
Let’s dive in and discuss some of the seasonal tailwinds supporting these new highs from SMIDs.
They love writing about ‘Selling in May and going away’.
Every year, they just can’t get enough of it.
But what about, “Remember to buy in November”?
Historically the best 3 month period of the year for stocks is from November through January.
As my pal Jeff Hirsch likes to say, “Buy in October and Get Yourself Sober”.
Here are all the seasonal cycles for the S&P500. The Green line includes every year since 1950 (1-year Cycle), the Blue line includes every year ending in 1 since 1951 (Decennial Cycle), and in Gray every post-election year since 1953 (Presidential Cycle): [Read more…]
