We’re officially half the way through this year’s Santa Claus Rally.
I like to check in on this one as it goes on because of the impact it’s had on past markets. [Read more…]
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
We’re officially half the way through this year’s Santa Claus Rally.
I like to check in on this one as it goes on because of the impact it’s had on past markets. [Read more…]
by JC
One thing I know about this time of the year is that whipsaws thrive.
We call it Whipsaw Hunting Season.
The lack of liquidity, and lack of interest due to other life priorities, creates over-extended and exaggerated moves that otherwise would not be allowed to occur under normal supply and demand conditions.
But since the b-squads are on the desks, you regularly get failed moves this time of the year that result in very fast moves in the opposite direction.
For some great examples see $GDX in December 2016 and check out $TLT in December 2013, among many others.
These were nasty failed moves that ripped the short sellers’ faces off into the new year.
We see these sorts of moves born around this time every single season. It’s perfectly normal market (human) behavior.
So as we go hunting this year, Tesla really stands out as a potentially great candidate. [Read more…]
by JC
Today officially marks the beginning of the Santa Claus Rally.
As we already discussed earlier this month, the SCR period runs during the final 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 of the following year.
So due to the holiday schedule, the 2022 SCR goes from today December 23rd through Wednesday January 4th.
The average performance during these 7 days is 1.33% and is positive 79.2% of the time. This is a big difference from all the other 7 day periods throughout the year, that only average 0.24% returns. They’re also positive less than 60% of the time.
So we’ve found that there’s real alpha during this period. [Read more…]
by JC
It’s that time of the year again.
The infamous Santa Claus rally is just around the corner.
And contrary to popular belief, it doesn’t start until the end of next week.
The official period for the Santa Claus rally includes the last 5 trading days of the year and the first two of the following year.
Based on the 2022/2023 holiday schedule, that means this year’s Santa Claus Rally begins on Friday December 23th and goes through Wednesday January 4th.
These 7 days have historically had a ridiculous track record, averaging over a 1.3% return for the S&P500 and coming in positive almost 80% of the time.
Since 1950, all other 7-day periods throughout the year only average 0.24% returns and were positive less than 60% of the time.
That’s real alpha. [Read more…]
by JC
This is the video recording of our December 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
by JC
Last night’s Live Conference Call went great.
We had a lot to discuss as more and more stocks keep making new highs and fewer and fewer stocks are making new lows.
This transition first got going back in June.
But now things are really picking up. [Read more…]
by JC
This is the video recording of our November 7th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
by JC
This is the video recording of the October 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.
We discussed: