This is the video recording of the June 2020 Conference Call.
Last Week In Review (06-12-2020)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
For the week ended Friday, June 12, 2020:
Every week we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Last week was a big one for the bears as most risk-assets sold off aggressively to end the week after a strong start.
Many major Indexes in both International and Domestic Equity Markets printed bearish island reversal patterns, most of which occurred at logical levels of overhead supply. Read our post about it here.
We also just wrote about how the market’s secular leaders are holding up best since market internals peaked about two weeks ago. We’re going to use our US Index and Sector tables below to highlight the noteworthy relative strength from these areas amid the recent market weakness.
US Stocks Fail Retest This Week
Five Bull Market Barometers (06-12-2020)
In early May we outlined the “Five Bull Market Barometers” we’re watching to identify the beginning of a new bull market in stocks.
If you haven’t read our initial post linked above, we’d encourage you to check it out so you understand what the rationale behind these five indicators is.
Now that the market has pulled back from its overhead supply, let’s take a look at where these long-term indicators stand.
Week In Review (06-05-2020)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza
For the week ended Friday, June 5, 2020:
Every weekend we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
This was a big week for market bulls as a myriad of consolidations resolved to the upside while the powerhouse Nasdaq 100 $QQQ finally became the first major index to reclaim its all-time highs. The only assets to post negative returns this week were the usual “safe-havens” such as Treasuries, Yen, and Precious Metals. Everything else was green. How’s that for improving risk-appetite?
In this post, we’ll highlight that this broadening participation and flight towards risk-assets is more than just a one-week phenomenon. We’ve seen this type of price behavior in some asset classes for over a month now.
Five Bull Market Barometers (06-05-2020)
In early May we outlined the “Five Bull Market Barometers” we’re watching to identify the beginning of a new bull market in stocks.
If you haven’t read our initial post linked above, we’d encourage you to check it out so you understand what the rationale behind these five indicators is.
It’s also worth pointing out that last week we noted that despite the slight improvement in two of these measures, zero of the five were above their key risk levels. Despite that, the market was telling us that the short-term momentum remained to the upside and our long ideas were working well.
After a couple of strong weeks in the market, let’s take a look and see how these longer-term indicators have fared.
Markets Trend, That’s Why Technical Analysis Works
What do we know is fact?
Market prices trend.
Stocks go up mostly together for a while. And Stocks go down together for a while. Sometimes, they go sideways.
It doesn’t matter if you’re a Technical Analyst, fundamental analyst, economist or whether you look at the moon and the stars to make your buy/sell decisions. You cannot argue with the fact that stocks prices trend.
This is why technical analysis is so powerful. All we’re trying to do is identify the direction of the trend. That’s it. If we’re on the right side of that trend, we’re going to be right more often than wrong. This is because there is a much higher probability of a trend continuing in the direction that it’s headed vs it completely reversing.
There are signs, of course, that allow us to get out of the way when risk is elevated. But to be perfectly clear, those are much more rare occasions. You guys who have been reading this for a long time already know that. How often am I all of a sudden Mr. Bear and the world is ending? Rarely. And that’s because stocks have mostly been in uptrends the past decade.
What’s happening today? Consolidations are resolving higher, not lower. Our longs are working incredibly well. Any shorts haven’t. That’s information.
Our Bull Market Checklist has also been really helpful. I encourage you to go back and go through the list yourself.
There are stocks we want to own. They’ve been working.
Defensive areas are rolling over: Bonds, Gold, Yen, Consumer Staples Relative, etc…
I think that’s a positive for stocks.
And how about the news? Fortunately, I don’t watch. But I can only imagine.
Stocks ripping in face of that I think says something.
What am I missing here? Let us know!
JC
Have you enrolled in our NEW Charting School yet? We’re really proud of what we put together. Check it out!
Consolidations Are Resolving Higher, Not Lower
Consolidations tend to resolve in the direction of the underlying trend. But when they don’t, that’s the signal!
An oldie but goodie from the past, that I always think about when this comes up, is the US Treasury Bond Fund back in the Fall of 2016. I remember chatting with Liz Claman at the time about it on FOX. The $TLT was consolidating in a classic, textbook continuation pattern above former resistance from the early 2015 highs:
The bet we were making (for many other factors as well at that time) was that this was not a continuation pattern, and instead a massive failed breakout.
[Read more…]
- « Previous Page
- 1
- …
- 48
- 49
- 50
- 51
- 52
- …
- 71
- Next Page »