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The Minor Leaguers (08-26-2024)

August 26, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

We call that Bull Market Breadth

August 26, 2024

We're seeing stocks go up.

In bull markets, that actually happens quite often.

We just saw new all-time highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P500 (market-cap weighted), S&P500 (equally-weighted), NYSE Composite Index, NYSE Advance-Decline and so much more. Check that out here.

But it's not just a U.S. thing. Look at all the other countries around the world.

This table below shows all the ACWI markets and where their prices are relative to various moving averages - ranging from short-term (10-day) up to long-term (200-day).

Notice how all the developed markets are above all of their moving averages, no matter how short-term or long-term they are:

The World of Semiconductors

August 25, 2024

It's a big week for Semiconductors.

Nvidia, the largest of all of them by far, reports their earnings this Wednesday 8/28.

We're hosting a LIVE stream starting at 3:45PM ET Wednesday as we monitor the market's reaction to what is probably the most important earnings report of the quarter.

In fact, we think this earnings release is so important, that we put together a FREE Nvidia Earnings Preview to get you prepared for Wednesday's big event.

Again, to be clear, we're not so much interested in the numbers themselves (i.e. Revenues, EPS, etc), but it's actually how the market reacts to those earnings that we're most focused on.

And we want you to be prepared.

You can download our NVDA Earnings Preview here.

How Bearish Is This?

August 24, 2024

Imagine waking up every day trying to make up reasons for why it's bearish when the Equally-weighted S&P500 is making new all-time highs?

There are people out there who are purposely going out of their way to blatantly lie to people about how historically bearish it is when market breadth is expanding, and more and more stocks are making new highs.

It's like a weird fetish or something. These people need help.

Here's what they're so angry about and why they think the market is about to fall apart:

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The Hall of Famers (08-23-2024)

August 24, 2024

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Finding The Next Nvidia - Download New Report

August 24, 2024

You guys know that I like to categorize certain things as being the "most important."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the world's most important index. The financial crisis highs are some of the most important levels in market history. 

And believe me when I say, semiconductors are the most important industry group in America right now, maybe even the world.

Why do I say this? Just look at the explosive growth. This is a group that just 5 years ago only had 3 companies worth more than $100 billion in market cap—Broadcom, Texas Instruments, and Taiwan Semiconductor. 

Today there are 13 semis over that threshold, including the grandaddy of them all, Nvidia. 

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Cotton Pickin' Time

August 23, 2024

It has paid to pick our spots wisely in the commodities complex as it's been a very bifurcated asset class this cycle.

Live and Feeder Cattle are carving out distribution patterns.

Energy has been a rangebound mess.

Meanwhile, the relative strength has been in the soft commodities and precious metals.

Gold recently put the finishing touches on a multi-decade accumulation pattern.

Cocoa has resolved a 12-year base and rallied over 400% to new all-time highs.

Coffee is flirting with new multi-decade highs after completing a tactical reversal pattern.

And we're betting that Cotton will participate to the upside with the rest of the soft complex soon. The soft and fluffy commodity is on the verge of trapping the bears below a key level of polarity.

We want to continue leaning into the relative strength in soft commodities.

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[Options Premium] Buying Ourselves More Time

August 23, 2024

Back on a July 15th episode of The Flow Show, Strazza and I put on a trade in Viking Therapeutics $VKNG. You can get all the trade details here.

We still like the setup, but with September options, our original position is running out of time.

And recently, the Analysts published a report that makes me think I should roll my position further out in time: