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Zoom Out. People Are Still Sad

November 11, 2024

With the Stock Market making new all-time highs every month, you would think that American consumers would be a little more optimistic.

You would think...

The S&P500 keeps hitting new all-time highs. Same for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq100.

More recently the S&P600 Small-caps, Dow Jones Transportation Average and Bitcoin all joined the New All-time highs list.

And yet...

Sentiment is still way down in the dumps.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data goes all the way back to the 1950s. So this isn't some kind of random johnny-come-lately poll.

There's real data here that reiterates how bull markets end with too much optimism, but thrive throughout periods with too much pessimism.

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📊 Crypto Stock Deepdive

November 10, 2024

Bitcoin is gearing up for its next major bull run — and while the spotlight is often on BTC, there are plenty of other opportunities to capitalize on this market shift. Beyond Bitcoin itself, many investors are turning their attention to the broader crypto ecosystem, and especially to Bitcoin miners, which tend to outperform during bullish cycles.

In recent weeks, we've been diving into a number of altcoins that offer outsized returns, but today, I want to focus on a different angle: the growing opportunities in Bitcoin mining stocks. These stocks have historically done well when Bitcoin rallies, and as we start to see signs of the next bull market, I believe miners could play a crucial role in boosting returns.

A key metric to watch is the ratio between Valkyrie’s Bitcoin Miners ETF ($WGMI) and Bitcoin ($BTC). When this ratio rises, it signals that Bitcoin mining stocks are outpacing Bitcoin itself — a trend that often precedes a broader surge in mining stock performance.

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📊 The Bull Market Returns

November 10, 2024

In recent months I flipped to a more bullish tone.

I was anticipating a return of the bull market, but the only uncertainty lied in when it would come back.

But with Bitcoin breaking to all time highs following the U.S. election, we have unequivocally began the next leg higher in crypto markets.

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The Next DogeCoin

November 9, 2024

Bitcoin just broke out to new all-time highs. The new bull market in Crypto is alive and well.

BTC actually closed yesterday at the highest level in history, and now has a market cap of over $1.5 Trillion.

For perspective, there are only 5 companies in the S&P500 that are worth more that Bitcoin: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon.

Every other stock is worth less than Bitcoin. As we say around here, Bitcoin is the 8th component of the "Magnificent 8".

But as we know from prior cycles, as well as Bitcoin performs, it doesn't even come close to the real winners.

Remember the last Crypto Bull Market? DogeCoin rallied 37,000% in a little over a year to reach an $85 Billion market-cap:

The goal this cycle is to catch moves like this.

And we're already seeing it.

Dog Wif Hat recently rallied 7000% in just 3 months to reach a market-cap of $4.5 Billion:

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LOL it's not a bubble...

November 8, 2024

The market has spoken.

It's only a bubble if it's going up and they don't own enough of it, or any at all.

They only call things bubbles when they have a hard time understanding why prices are doing what they're doing.

As someone who studies human behavior every single day, I can tell you with a high degree of confidence that 99.9% of people who call things bubbles haven't actually done any of the work required to determine whether something is in a bubble or not.

And that's the key thing here.

There is a huge arbitrage between the people who put in the work, and actually take the time to analyze markets using real data, and those who are too busy doing other things to truly have an honest opinion about whether a particular period of time is, in fact, a bubble.

Bubbles, as those of us with common sense know, are incredibly rare, by definition.

So when someone calls something a bubble, they are almost certainly wrong about that, or in most cases, just making it up because they don't know how else to describe certain market behaviors that they can't wrap their heads around.

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International Hall of Famers (11-08-2024)

November 8, 2024

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

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Catching Ultraviolet Rays

November 8, 2024

We recently discussed the extreme demand for uranium stocks as the AI boom progresses.

But what about the other alternative energy equities?

Solar stocks have been amongst the most hated in the entire market, right up there with pot stocks and China.

The Invesco Solar ETF $TAN looks ready to explode higher:

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 11/8/24

November 8, 2024

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in SMH today.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. Exited  XLP, XHB, and XLV at profit targets.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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ASC Mastermind Lab: Jeff Hirsch, The Master Of Seasonality

November 7, 2024

Below is the 8th ASC Mastermind Lab Course. These are special videos that will be made available throughout the duration of the 12-week course featuring conversations with professionals from across Wall Street discussing topics in their expertise. 

If you're going to talk about market seasonality, you might as well talk to the master. Jeff Hirsch is the editor and publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac. His dad, Yale Hirsch, literally created the Almanac and is responsible for bringing the idea of market seasonality to the mainstream. 

There is no one that understands market seasonality better than Jeff. I have learned everything that I know on this topic from him. I hope you enjoy our conversation.