This is the video recording of the November 2021 Mid-month Conference Call.
Hurdles Ahead for the Dollar
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US Dollar Index $DXY is pressing to new highs, disregarding what many think it should be doing based on historic intermarket relationships.
Considering the bullish developments and new highs from risk assets, the strength from the US dollar continues to be a head-scratcher.
But will the breakout in the DXY hold, or will it roll over and confirm the signals coming from bonds, stocks, and commodities?
When we broke down the US Dollar Index last month, we pointed out that its strength was rather narrow in terms of how it was performing relative to most individual currencies. Long story short, the recent rally in DXY has been fueled primarily by its two largest components — the euro and the yen. These two currencies make up more than 70% of the DXY weighting, and the fact that they are at new 52-week lows explains why the index is at new highs.
But we’re still not seeing the same kind of strength when we look at most other dollar crosses.
As we continue to make sense of the dollar rally, let’s take a look at two USD crosses that will provide valuable information in the coming weeks.
[Podcast] The Seasonality Episode w/ Jeff Hirsch, Author of the Stock Trader’s Almanac
As we make our way through the earlier stages of the most bullish time of the year, who better to talk to than Jeff Hirsch, Author of the annual Stock Trader’s Almanac.
When it comes to Technical Analysis, what we’re doing is analyzing the behavior of the market, and therefore market participants. Seasonality falls under that umbrella and Jeff Hirsch is the ultimate authority on the subject. He’s had a front row seat his entire life to how markets trend during different times of the year.
In this episode, we talk about “The Best 6 months”, the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Commodities Seasonality, and we even get to learn a little more about his father Yale Hirsch, the originator of the Almanac back in the 1960s.
Jeff Hirsch and I have known each other for many years and have hung out in Vegas, New York, San Francisco and hopefully many more fun cities to come in the future. So this was a blast!
I hope you enjoy this as much as I did.
Make sure to follow Jeff on Twitter @AlmanacTrader
Under The Hood (11-15-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.
Welcome back to our latest “Under The Hood” column, where we’ll cover all the action for the week ended November 12, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our “Minor Leaguers” column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
Watch this video for a “behind the scenes” look at our process.
Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s a lot of overlap.
Follow The Flow (11-15-2021)
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny.
Then we flip through our list of stocks flashing unusual activity and pick the best setups using many of the same technical filters we do for our other scans. And just like that, we’ll follow the money flow and fatten our own pockets along with some of the world’s most powerful financial institutions.
[Options Premium] Gap ‘n Go!
A stock recently got on our radar after share prices exploded higher following a recent earnings report.
Now that the market has given players in this stock some time to marinate in the new reality presented during this last quarterly report, options premiums are beginning to return to normal (ie “low”) prices. And this is making it more compelling for us to position for what we feel is another leg higher. [Read more…]
Gold Miners don’t need Crypto Wallets
Saturday Morning Chartoons: Buy High & Sell Higher
This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.
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