John Roque is a Technical Analyst who I’ve looked up to since early in my career. From the bottom of my heart, it was guys like him who inspired me to analyze the behavior of markets and do it in a way that is unique to me. I’ve always enjoyed his comparisons between markets and sports. While on the sell side, John was consistently ranked among the top analysts before joining the buy side, including Soros Fund Management. In this conversation, we discuss everything from Ted Williams to Corn Futures. He gives us his thoughts on Gold, Crude Oil, Interest Rates and the combined market-caps of Financials & Technology sectors. This was a real honor for me to get to interview one of my favorite technicians on the Street. I hope you enjoy it! [Read more…]
I was down in San Francisco Friday afternoon shopping for a tuxedo for my wedding in a few months. Whenever I’m in the city I like to get Chinese food and swing by the tv networks and say hi. Friday I got to do both. [Read more…]
At Allstarcharts we incorporate what we call a, “Top/Down Approach”. To us, this means we start with the broader picture and analyze all of the Indexes around the world. Only then do we dive into our own country or the country in question. This is where we try and identify the trends in the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and many others. Next we break it down to the sector and industry level like Healthcare, Banks or Technology. Finally when the relative strength and momentum line up in a particular group of stocks, that’s when we try and find the best risk vs reward opportunities available to express a given theme.
Here is the video in full: [Read more…]
For me, it’s not just the S&P500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This is a market of stocks and I think recognizing what stocks themselves are doing is just as important as identifying the trends of the major indexes. By recognizing the behavior of some of the biggest components in the market, we can approach it from a more informed position.
There are 3 stocks in particular that stood out in my Monthly Chart review this week. I always say it, this exercise which I only perform 12 times per year at the end of each month, is the most valuable part of my entire process. There is no question. It forces us to take a step back and identify the primary trends.
These are the charts that stood out: [Read more…]
You guys who know me already know that this is my favorite exercise of them all. We only do this 12 times a year. Let’s just say that it takes you an hour, if you really want to take your time, that’s 12 hours of your entire year. Think about the amount of time you spend each year performing other analysis. As far as I’m concerned, it’s not even close. These 6 hours (for me it’s 6) are easily the most valuable 6 hours I spend all year analyzing markets.
This process allows us to take a step back, which forces us to identify the direction of the primary trend. It’s impossible not to, especially when you’re seeing similar themes across Indexes, sectors and asset classes.
Here’s what stands out from this month’s review: [Read more…]
This is the video recording of the February 2019 Conference Call for Members of All Star Options [Read more…]
Coming into the year, the most important chart I was watching was the US Dollar. As far as risk appetite was concerned, I felt the Dollar would be a great tell. The way I saw it, the Dollar rallied throughout 2018 to achieve its upside objective and then broke the uptrend line from those former lows. If we were to just rip through those key levels without at least some kind of pause or consolidation, it would most likely be because of a tremendous flight to safety. Stocks would probably be doing poorly under those conditions.
But flip that thesis upside down, and a weaker Dollar would most likely mean strength in stocks. This is exactly what we’ve seen throughout January = A weaker Dollar and higher stock prices: [Read more…]
For me, price is the most important technical indicator. Everything after that is just a supplement to actual price behavior. In that group of supplements is Momentum. My oscillator of choice is the RSI, or the “Relative Strength Index”. I use this indicator in a variety of ways, but today I wanted to show you an easy trick to quickly identify whether momentum is in a bullish range or a bearish range: [Read more…]