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The stock has had a strong runup in recent weeks. Some traders have a hard time buying stocks making highs.
I don't.
But with implied volatility relatively cheap right now in this stock, an earnings event on the horizon, and a potential "two-hundred-dollar-roll" looming ahead, this feels like the right time to take a defined risk shot.
As I've discussed recently, earnings season is quickly approaching. And with it comes risks and opportunities.
For today's trade, I'm going to leverage elevated options premiums in a nearby expiration to get a better net cost on the real call options I'd like to own.
And I'm taking advantage of a recent pullback to get in at attractive prices and a nearby exit if I'm wrong.
What happens if you can't exit a position on your brokerage platform?
Do you sit and wait it out, hoping for a quick resolution and an opportunity to exit at your price, or better?
Has that ever worked out for you?
I'm fairly certain that has nearly never worked out for me. If it has, it certainly didn't compensate me for all the times it hasn't. Not financially, and certainly not emotionally.
There's a certain panic that sets in when we lose the ability to take control when we need to. We can't control the markets, but we can control how we react to them. We can choose to take action when we need to.
Except when we can't.
Your broker has a glitch, the platform is down, and nobody will take your calls because their customer service lines are being bombarded by traders just like you who are stuck in positions, looking for a quick exit.
As an owner of a gas-guzzling SUV, I don't like the prospect of higher oil prices.
Nobody enjoys paying more at the pump. It's an unavoidable tax and if it gets too high, it can be a real drag on people's finances, and can even spill over into broader consumer spending.
And it certainly can be an inflationary signal for all things we spend money on.
That said, in a small way, I'm going to look to hedge myself against gas inflation by getting involved in a popular filling station operator that will ease my mind if I keep paying more to drive my car.
During today's trades review (in the video above), I discussed how I'm still of the mind to be hunting for opportunities to be bullishly aggressive.
However, the current volatility environment is also offering us spots to add some delta-neutral credit spreads with better-than-average odds of success. I like doing this, if for no other reason than to add some portfolio diversification.
And I demonstrate one way in which I manage open call calendar spreads to manage my risks and give me a better shot at large gains.
All this and the usual stop updates for existing positions.
We've seen a bit of a rise in volatility this week, and while it is not something that should be ignored or scoffed at, I do think it offers us options traders an opportunity to position for some volatility mean-reversion, especially in some big-cap names that are stuck in ranges, ideally tightening ones.
Today's trade is in a well-known name that already has earnings out of the way and fits the bill for some continued sideways action.
On today's Flow Show, Steve Strazza and I discuss this morning's frustrating start to Q4, and whether or not it means anything.
A 20%+ rise in $VIX is not something that should be ignored. But is the market overreacting to today's down tape and is this just related to repositioning in a new month and quarter?
Regardless, we've got a stock on our radar today that is caught up a bit in the news cycle, has a lot of traders caught in short positions, and could be ripe for an epic squeeze if the stock can get out from under a declining Anchored VWAP.
Here's a chart of ZIM Integrated Shipping Services:
Today, I fielded a question from a trader who has a winning options trade on.
When he originally put the trade on, he didn't have a stop-out price in mind. It was a bit of an "all-or-nothing" trade. His risk is defined and he was comfortable with the fact that if he lost, he would probably be a 100% loser. Nothing wrong with this, as long as the position sizing is right.
Fortunately for him, the trade has gone his way and he's sitting on some handsome profits, yet the stock still has work to do to get to his profit target.
His question to me, paraphrased, is:
"I didn't originally have a stop for this trade; but now that it's winning, how do I determine if/when I should apply a trailing stop to protect my open gains?"
I'll classify this as a "first-class" problem. His issue is, how does he give this position as much room as possible to continue growing, while ensuring he can still escape with a profit if/when the trend ends?