I promise there is a trading lesson here. Stick with me...
Two-point lead. Ball on the opponent's 27-yard line. 4th and 2. Two minutes and 27 seconds left on the clock.
The choices are this:
1. Attempt to kick a make-able, but no gimme 44-yard field goal to go up by 5 points.
2. Pooch punt to pin the opponents inside their 10-yard line for their next drive.
3. Call a play to attempt to gain the 2 yards needed to earn a fresh set of downs and continue running the clock.
Choose option 1 and there is a very real possibility that the Buffalo Bills' sometimes undependable field goal kicker could miss the 3-point try. This would leave the Kansas City Chiefs, and their future Hall of Fame Quarterback Patrick Mahomes with more than two minutes on the clock to move the ball less than 35 yards to put themselves into position to kick the game-winning field goal.
Even if the Bills' kicker makes the field goal, putting the Bills up by 5, there will still be more than two minutes on the play clock. For the team from Kansas City with countless late comeback wins, there is not a football fan in America who doesn't think Patrick Mahomes can pull off a two-minute touchdown drive to win the game.
Choose option 2 and we have the same feeling. Even from deep in their own zone, nobody in America doubts Kansas City's chances to drive close enough to score the go-ahead field goal as time expires. We've all seen this movie before. Much of America hates it.
Option 3 is a good option. A relatively safe option. An option that many play-callers would choose. If it works, it'll be heralded as a good decision. If it fails, nobody will lose their job. We'll chalk it up to bad luck and then pray for good luck to hold on for the win.
How many times have we traders chosen Option 3?
I know I have. Far too many times to count.
There's nothing wrong with Option 3.
As the Bills lined up to go for it on 4th down, it appeared the Bills chose option 3. Many probably thought the Bills would either go for a quick 3-yard gain to get the first down, or attempt to draw the Chiefs into an offsides penalty to extend the drive. Either would have been sensible, safe decisions.
Instead, the Bills went with a fourth option:
Buffalo Bills' Superman Quarterback Josh Allen (#17) and Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady decided at that moment to PLAY TO WIN.
Click the link above to watch and hear CBS Play-by-Play announcer Jim Nanz calling this the "Play of the Year in the NFL!"
To be a Champion, it takes the determination of a Josh Allen to will ourselves to PLAY TO WIN. Josh Allen is not yet a Champion in the NFL, but he's playing like one right now. He's doing the things that Leaders do to get to the next level.
Savvy traders know that choosing Option 3 rarely, if ever, leads to big wins. Sure, we'll earn some gains from time to time. And we'll avoid most avoidable mistakes too. Keeping ourselves in the game is important. And for some of us, that is good enough.
But are we here to just be good enough?
Or do we want to be the Champions of our trading accounts?
Josh Allen is taking calculated bets with high reward potential. He wants to be a Champion.
Do you have it in you to be a Champion?
Sean McLaughlin | Chief Options Strategist, All Star Charts
