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Follow the Flow (11-20-2023)

November 20, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

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Commodities Bring the Goods Despite Soaring Stocks

November 17, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Commodities are losing ground as money flows back into stocks and bonds in hopes of a Santa Claus rally.

Yet fresh strength in equities isn’t completely leaving commodities in the dust. In fact, numerous bullish developments are underway for raw materials.

Dr. Copper is working its way higher. Crude oil is refusing to throw in the towel despite increased selling pressure. And softs such as orange juice, cocoa, and sugar are flying toward fresh decade highs.

That doesn’t sound bearish to me, especially when considering new buying opportunities in the grain markets…

First, check out the stock-to-commodity ratio:

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The Hall of Famers (11-17-2023)

November 17, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

*Click table to enlarge view

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Tracking a Bond Market Bounce

November 16, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Bond investors must feel like it’s their lucky day.

Long-duration bonds are reaching new multi-month highs!

It finally looks as if a tactical bounce is underway for these safe havens-turned-risk assets…

The Treasury Bond ETF $TLT is coming off extreme oversold readings on the 14-day RSI, highlighted in the lower pane:

Over the past two years, oversold conditions at these levels have coincided with near-term bottoms for long-duration bonds.

Based on the chart, TLT looks poised for a mean-reverting rally.

Let’s zoom in…

Check out the daily chart carving out a potential six-week reversal formation:

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The Short Report (11-16-2023)

November 16, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

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The Dollar Bends Down Low

November 15, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The dollar has gone from slinging cheese to lobbing cookies.

Sellers finally got ahold of the US Dollar Index $DXY on Tuesday, sending it on its steepest single-day decline since October 2022.

Recall what followed for the dollar…

The DXY formed a major top and fell victim to not one but two subsequent 1 percent-plus daily drawdowns. 

Check out the DXY chart with the one-day rate-of-change in the upper pane:

The DXY dropped almost 1.5% during Tuesday's session. That’s a huge move for a currency (with the exception of the Turkish lira and perhaps the Polish zloty).

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Silver Must Join the Party

November 14, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Miami is pure gold.

It sways to its own beat, enticing and intoxicating even the insular traveler.

Incidentally, I was engulfed by the city’s rhythm as I attended a family wedding last weekend.

And it was wild!

I danced with family and friends and sipped bubbles at sunset in Key Biscayne straight through to the early morning hours along South Beach.

But this old dog would never have made it to dawn without my wife’s crazy cousins. 

They displayed an appetite for reckless abandon that gold longs to witness from its own crazy cousin…

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Under the Hood (11-13-2023)

November 13, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended November 11, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

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Follow the Flow (11-13-2023)

November 13, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.