The former 2011 highs remain front and center for gold futures – and all precious metals.
These shiny rocks will experience increased selling if gold slips back below those former highs marking the prior commodity supercycle peak.
Silver, palladium, and the Gold Mining ETF $GDX are already printing fresh lows. And new multi-month lows for the silver/gold ratio indicate dwindling risk appetite.
These aren’t the type of developments that support a sustained uptrend.
Yet this action hasn’t deterred gold bugs.
Despite every reason to sleep in and shirk any and all responsibilities, they continue to show up right on time…
Even on Monday!
Check out the monthly gold chart:
I’m taunting the chart police, posting an incomplete monthly candlestick. But I’m not interested in analyzing the June candle, so it doesn’t matter.
What does matter is the former 2011 high at 1,923.7. That’s the line in the sand. And the monthly chart provides the cleanest example.
I also find the past two instances gold has traded above its former 2011 highs interesting (July 27, 2022, through September 18, 2022, and March 1, 2022, through April 22, 2022).
Both events fell just short of 40 consecutive days compared to the current 68 days and counting.
Does that mean new-all time highs are in the near future for gold? Maybe not. But it does highlight increasing demand and a potential shift between buyers and sellers.
At the very least, buyers have become more persistent.
Despite the gold bugs buying every dip, gold still finds itself on the cusp of breaking down.
The forecast looks choppy, with a possibility of opportunity cost if they can’t defend the former 2011 highs.
