But as always, we need to remain objective in our approach and look for cracks in our thesis.
It's one of many reasons why we always play devil's advocate; that is, collating a list of data points that go against our thesis and would subsequently make us change our perspective.
Let's not forget, flipping our approach as new evidence comes in is not only an advantage, but in public markets, it's a necessity.
So with that said, what if this isn't as clean a breakout as we initially intended?
As we laid out in yesterday's call, if Bitcoin is in the 50,000's, we need to be aggressively long crypto.
There's just no way around it.
Above 47,000, the bias is clearly higher toward the first half highs:
The projected move into the 60,000's roughly represents a 30% move. If we know anything about the altcoins, it's that many of them are a double, if not a triple in that environment...
We're already seeing that leadership emerge under the surface, with the altcoins reasserting their former leadership at their pre-covid highs on a relative basis:
What are the things we look for most when trying to identify leadership?
First, it’s all relative. When the market is selling indiscriminately, this becomes more challenging. You’re literally looking for the assets that get hit the least. It's not until the volatility subsides that we start looking for those that rebound out of it the strongest.
In today’s post, we’ll use the recent selloff and rebound in crypto as a case study for how we pick winners out of a loser's market.
Here are two of our favorite ways to find future outperformers:
Relative resilience during selling pressure.
Relative momentum and strength - both into the peak and off the lows.
With the former, we can use tools like relative strength - or, rather, the absence of weakness - in addition to chart characteristics like bullish divergences and momentum not hitting oversold.
With the latter, we’re again looking at relative strength. Who were the biggest gainers since the market bottomed? Who are the first to take out their AVWAP from the highs and/or other key levels?