[Premium] Currently Frustrated By Currencies

First, let's start with the weekly chart of USD/INR, which had confirmed a failed breakout above 74.50 a few months ago. Since then, there's been little downside follow-through and prices are attempting to reclaim that level again.

At the very least, this suggests we no longer want to be short given its long-term series of higher highs and higher lows remain intact.

Click on chart to enlarge view.

Here's the daily view showing prices stabilizing above 72.90 over the last two months as momentum diverged positively. Now this consolidation is attempting to break to the upside, suggesting that we'd rather be erring on the long side than the short side if we're above the recent lows of 72.90.

This USD/INR approach makes sense given the strength we're seeing in the other pairs (see charts below).

In terms of EUR/INR, the weekly breakout remains intact with several weekly closes above 86. Until that changes, the bias is still to the upside with a target near 100.

And here's a closer look at the daily chart. Momentum is in a bullish regime, the 200-day is rising, and prices are above their breakout level. All of these things suggest we should be erring on the long side if prices are above their recent lows of 85.50.

And here's GBP/INR which keeps bumping up against that 97 level. We've been waiting patiently and the best course of action remains patience until we get a weekly close above 97, which would confirm a breakout to 104.

And here's a closer look at the pair showing just how mixed the price action and momentum readings have been.

Similar patience has been required in JPY/INR, which has been consolidating below 0.715 since March. Our bet is still that this resolves higher, but we're waiting for a weekly close above 0.715 for confirmation before getting aggressive.

And here's a closer look at the action since March. There's a rising 200-day, momentum in a bullish regime, and prices consolidating in a tight range following a 2-year base breakout. All of these things indicate an upside breakout is the higher probability outcome.

Overall, the structural trends continue to point towards a weaker Rupee relative to the Euro, Pound, and Yen.

The US Dollar remains the wild card, with failed moves above and below that 74.50 level. But, given the strength we're seeing in these other pairs, we can err on the long side of USD/INR as long as prices are above their recent lows.

If all of these other pairs break out successfully, it's unlikely that USD/INR will buck that trend and do its own thing.

Thanks for reading and please let us know if you have any questions.

Allstarcharts Team