Here is the video in full:
Source:
Business Day: Technical Tuesdays (BNN)
Tags: $CRB $DX_F $SPY $SPX $UUP $GC_F $GLD $TLT $TNX $ZB_F
Expert technical analysis of financial markets by JC Parets
by JC
Here is the video in full:
Source:
Business Day: Technical Tuesdays (BNN)
Tags: $CRB $DX_F $SPY $SPX $UUP $GC_F $GLD $TLT $TNX $ZB_F
by JC
The worst performing month of 2013 is now in the books. Funny enough, the S&P500 only lost 3%. But the internals and breadth in this market have been deteriorating for some time. We’ve pointed to several examples of this over the past 4-5 weeks, so today we reviewed some of that. Also bonds this week confirmed everything we discussed in last week’s video. They look great and everyone still hates them. And finally since it’s the end of the month, we took a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average going back 20 years. And it looks like we’re up in the nosebleed section.
I hope you enjoy the video:
Tags: $DJI $DJIA $DIA $SPX $SPY $ES_F $TLT $TNX $ZB_F $CRB $DJP
by JC
Now that Syria is taking over the news, interest rates and bonds have taken a back seat in the financial media. But for us market participants, this is still front and center. If you watched this weekend’s market video that I did with Phil, or follow me on Stocktwits or Twitter, you know that I’ve been really vocal lately about the potential bottom in bond prices. But today I want to focus on rates.
This is a chart of the 10yr Treasury Note Yield Index. We’re looking at candlesticks that show yields are retesting what was formerly key resistance throughout the summer:
The problems I see are 1) the quick reversal lower after the new highs last week and 2) the momentum divergence that developed on those new highs. As yields took out resistance, the relative strength index made lower highs. That worries me.
In addition, we see crazy bearish sentiment in Treasury Bond prices. These are the kinds of numbers that we’ve seen consistently at peaks in yields; most recently in early 2011 and mid 2009.
For confirmation, we want to see a weekly close in 10yr yields below 2.7%. With rising 20, 50 & 200 day moving averages, there is no doubt that yields are and have been in a bull market. But so were stocks just a few weeks ago right?
Stay tuned…
Tags: $TNX $TLT $ZB_F $ZN_F $TBT
by JC
A funny thing happened on Monday afternoon. As stocks rolled over into the close, US Treasury Bonds didn’t follow. This is now something different, a change in character for these markets. Last Friday we ran the numbers: Stocks and Bonds ($SPY & $TLT) had a 1-week positive correlation of +0.95, a 2-week correlation of +0.94 and a 1-month +0.79. The results showed a very high positive correlation between the two asset classes. Interest rates rising was bad for stocks and bonds. But no more.
I was pretty vocal on Stocktwits Monday about this shift in market behavior. But since this has now continued into Tuesday, I think it’s worth a quick blog post. Lower rates are now negative for stocks.
Here is a 10-minute chart showing the close relationship between the two asset classes. They came apart around 2 o’clock Monday:
With stocks selling off, it seems as though the market is looking for the safety of US Treasury Bonds. Safety appears to be the priority, not the fear of higher rates. This is an interesting development.
I’ll follow up as this behavior continues. I think this is just the beginning of the return of negative correlations.
Tags: $TLT $SPY $ZB_F $ZN_F $TNX $SPX $ES_F
by JC
We had a lot to cover this week. And although this may be a boring few days coming up, there are some interesting setups that could start to get going. First of all, everyone hates bonds so I think that’s something to pay attention to. But we also discussed Herbalife, Vietnam, S&Ps and the importance of keeping an open mind as a market participant.
Enjoy:
Tags: $SPY $DJIA $DIA $SPX $HLF $VNM $TLT $ZB_F $TNX
by JC
I went down to the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange this week to look at some commodities charts. In this video we focus on a potential end to this secular bull market in Bonds, a breakout in Cocoa and the downtrend in precious metals.
Check it out:
Tags: $ZB_F $TLT $TNX $CC_F $NIB $GLD $GC_F $SLV $SI_F
by JC
Another quarter in the books amigos.
Dr. Phil and I took a look at some longer term charts, as is always a good idea at the end of months and quarters. We’ve got some big time assets at some big time levels – stocks and treasury bonds specifically. Aussie Dollar, as we mentioned this week has not confirmed these bullish momentum divergences. And I figured it would be a good time to follow up on the Gold/Platinum Ratio that we’ve been talking about since December – new 52-week highs today.
I hope you enjoy the video:
Tags: $FXA $AUDUSD $SPY $TLT $ES_F $ZB_F $SPX $PPLT $PL_F $GC_F $GLD
by JC
Is this market fun or what?
Dr. Phil and I did a short video where we discussed S&P levels, Treasuries, Emerging Markets, Copper, Brazil and China. Check it out:
Tags: $FXI $TLT $ZB_F $DX_F $EEM $HG_F $IYR XLU $EWZ