I could not be happier to see this rally in stocks all over the world. The Transportation stocks in particular have been especially impressive (See here: Transports 8/24/16). But I want to point to some of the rotation we’ve started to see in other asset classes since last week. [Read more…]
One of the most valuable tools we have as technicians is the ability to go through every single stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and every sector and sub-sector in the S&P500 so that we can weigh all of the evidence. It might take some time, but I promise you that there is no better way to gauge the strength or weakness in a market, than by going through them all. Since most people don’t have the time to do this work as regularly as I do, my annotations and notes can easily be referenced in the Chartbook.
Today I wanted to share some of my conclusions after running through all of the Dow Components and S&P Sectors on both weekly and daily timeframes. This analysis consists of over 120 charts and all of them have been updated today in the Chartbook. [Read more…]
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
There has been a lot of talk about how the recent rally has been accompanied by a dramatic improvement in market breadth, so I took the time to see if the data I track supported that conclusion.
The first study on the major S&P 500 sectors and US Indices was completed by calculating how far the indexes were from their 52-week high compared to the average component in the index. [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaq100: Buy, Sell or Hold?
- What Is The Best Way To Invest In The Chinese Stock Market?
- What Other Asian Countries Should We Be Buying?
- Which Commodities Are The Next Ones To Rip Higher?
- With Interest Rates On The Rise, How Do We Profit?
- Why Is Dollar/Yen The Most Important Chart For U.S. Stocks?
- What Other Currencies Do We Need To Own Today?
You guys know that I prefer to incorporate more of a weight-of-the-evidence approach to markets rather than basing my decision making on a single indicator. We look at stock markets all over the world to find themes, both bullish and bearish, and then take advantage of them within U.S. markets. I then take a similar approach and go sector by sector in the U.S., including a series of sub-sectors, to break it down even further and find themes within the U.S. As you guys well know, the reason we were bullish since January was because of the weight-of-the-evidence internationally, not because of what we saw in the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- Why Has Latin America Been the Best Place To Invest?
- What Will Further U.S. Dollar Weakness Do To Stocks?
- With Interest Rates Bouncing, What Do We Do With Bonds?
- The Consumer Staples Trade and Coca-Cola
- Gold Miners and Other Metals
- Will Developed Markets Catch Up With Emerging Market Stocks?
- U.S. Small & Micro-Caps vs U.S. Large-caps
- What Does This Strength In Transports Mean?
In honor of Superbowl 50, we created a countdown of what we consider to be the most important 50 charts in the world. These include U.S. Stocks and Sectors, International Indexes, Currencies, Commodities, Interest Rate Markets and Global Intermarket relationships. Some of these are more actionable than others, but collectively I think they truly tell the story of global market risk, or risk aversion for that matter.
Members of All Star Charts get access to all of this information 24/7, so we would like to invite you to start a 30-Day Risk Free Trial and Join us to see if our community is right for you. We have received incredible feedback from our members and will continue to improve the platform.
Discount Offer & Risk Free Trial: http://allstarcharts.com/superbowl/
Here is the video in full (audio begins immediately, video gets going after 30 seconds)…..Enjoy! [Read more…]
Ratio analysis is one of the most valuable tools that we have as market participants. It’s important to recognize where money is flowing out of, and where it is going into. This is the case when it comes to stocks, bonds, commodities and currency markets. A lot of these ratios tell us what the institutional money is doing, which is what drives markets. Think about the long-only mutual fund managers as a giant cruise ship. It takes a long time for a cruise ship to turn completely around and go in a different direction. With the amount of money being controlled by mutual fund managers, it’s a similar situation. We can spot a cruise ship turning around very easily, because it takes so long. It’s not much different in the stock market.
Today we are looking at a ratio of the Consumer Discretionary Sector vs Consumer Staples. The reason this is important is because of the high correlation between [Read more…]
Wednesday morning I was down at the Nasdaq chatting with Frances Horodelski from Business News Network. The mean reversion trade in Energy worked out nicely since last time I was on BNN in March. But at this point I think the easy money has been made there and money appears to be rotating into the Agribusiness sector. We discuss how to take advantage of this as well as the US Stock Market as a group and the weakening US Dollar.
Here is the full interview:
Click Here for more information on our Premium Technical Research Packages
Tags: $SPY $MOO $TSN $AGU $6C_F $USDCAD $UUP $DX_F $XLK $XLP
One of the exercises that I find really valuable is comparing the relative performance of each of the S&P sectors to each other. Today we are breaking down 3-year daily line charts of each sector vs the S&P500. I also include a 200-day simple moving average to not only help define the trend, but also to see where prices are compared to the long-term smoothing mechanism.
The next two: Staples and Utilities look like bearish to bullish reversals. These were previously in downtrends relative to the S&P500 but now appear to be turning up and trading above upward-sloping 200 days:
Financials are just kind of there. The lack of trend tells us that they are trading with the market and are right near the mean. So not much to do here, although I would argue that they look better than the previous two above.
The last three are easily the worst of the bunch: Energy, Materials and Telecom. Each of them on a relative basis are well below downward sloping 200 day moving averages and other than perhaps a brief mean reversion, the trends here are still down. I would not trust these at this point to maintain a sustainable rally relative to the S&P500:
I like to do this periodically to get a good perspective on where money is flowing. I don’t really care what the sell side thinks in terms of over-weighting and under-weighting sectors. To me, price is what pays and the trends here (or lack there of) can be seen very clearly in the charts above. That’s enough as far as I’m concerned.
Members of Eagle Bay Solutions receive weekly updates on each of these charts along with the absolute price action itself. We have 5 different products from Commodities, to US Sectors, Dow Components, Global Equities and the Major US Averages. Click here to see which package is best for you.
Tags: $XLY $XLF $XLI $XLE $XLB $XLV $XLP $XLU $XLK $IYZ $SPY
On Wednesday I was over at the Fox Business studios chatting with David Asman and Liz Claman about the US Stock Market. As you guys know I’ve been pretty bearish since the summer. The brief new highs in the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average last month didn’t tell the whole story. Very few stocks made new highs and most of the averages had already been rolling over. In this segment we went over a few of the indicators that had made us bearish and what’s happened since then to make me think stocks are heading even lower.
Here’s the video in full:
Click here for more information on Managed Assets
Click here for more information on our Premium Technical Research Packages
Tags: $SPY $IWM $IWC $MDY $HYG $TLT $XLY $XLP