You guys know that I prefer to incorporate more of a weight-of-the-evidence approach to markets rather than basing my decision making on a single indicator. We look at stock markets all over the world to find themes, both bullish and bearish, and then take advantage of them within U.S. markets. I then take a similar approach and go sector by sector in the U.S., including a series of sub-sectors, to break it down even further and find themes within the U.S. As you guys well know, the reason we were bullish since January was because of the weight-of-the-evidence internationally, not because of what we saw in the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. [Read more…]
Video: #SB50Charts Best 50 Charts In The World
In honor of Superbowl 50, we created a countdown of what we consider to be the most important 50 charts in the world. These include U.S. Stocks and Sectors, International Indexes, Currencies, Commodities, Interest Rate Markets and Global Intermarket relationships. Some of these are more actionable than others, but collectively I think they truly tell the story of global market risk, or risk aversion for that matter.
Members of All Star Charts get access to all of this information 24/7, so we would like to invite you to start a 30-Day Risk Free Trial and Join us to see if our community is right for you. We have received incredible feedback from our members and will continue to improve the platform.
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Here is the video in full (audio begins immediately, video gets going after 30 seconds)…..Enjoy! [Read more…]
[Premium] Updated Notes on U.S. Sectors and Sub-sectors
The U.S. Stock market and most of its sectors continue to rally. As happy as we are to see this, and as much as we expect this to continue through February, these are only counter-trend rallies within larger structural declines. The good news is that counter-trend rallies in bear markets historically tend to be the most powerful kind of rallies. I think there is still room to the upside in many different sectors with very well-defined risk.
All of the charts have been updated on the Chartbook. Here are my notes for this week’s sector review: [Read more…]
[Premium] Weekly Open Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- How Much Further Can U.S. Stocks Rally
- What Is The Best Way To Profit From Higher Oil Prices?
- Which Emerging Markets Will Do The Best This Month?
- Why “no one” Saw This Yen Rally Coming, But We did?
- How Low Are Interest Rates Going and How Can We Benefit?
- Structural vs Tactical – How to Make Money In This Environment
Bloomberg Appearance: Structurally The U.S. Stock Market Now Looks Even Worse
On Monday afternoon I was over at the Bloomberg West headquarters as a guest on their 4PM show “What’d You miss?”. This is a show that I’ve appeared on a few times from New York, so it was cool to see their San Francisco studios. My take is that the snack bar in the Lexington Avenue building in New York is much better, but the view of the Bay in San Francisco beats the view of Queens, NY all day. So we’ll chalk it up as a tie.
Anyway, last time I was on the show back in December we wanted to be short the S&P500, Apple and Emerging Markets while simultaneously buying U.S. Treasury Bonds. This has worked out very well over the past month as stocks got crushed to start the year, so we couldn’t be happier. Now, although a lot of our tactical downside targets were hit last week, including Apple into the low 90s, structurally things have actually gotten worse. I think going forward, any strength should be used as an opportunity to sell into and much lower prices are coming for U.S. Stocks.
Here is the full interview: [Read more…]
[Premium] U.S. Sectors: Why We Want To Cover So Many Tactical Shorts
[Premium] Our Weekly Letter About The Current Market Environment
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- How Is The Santa Claus Rally Coming Along And What Does It Mean?
- Which Markets To Buy Dips And Which To Sell Rips
- How High Can Natural Gas Go?
- Japanese Yen and U.S. Equities
- Gold vs Copper Ratio Still Trending
- U.S. Interest Rates and the Yield Curve Narrowing
[Chart Of The Week] The Expensive Opportunity Cost In Owning Bank of America
When calculating risk in a given trade or investment, I find that opportunity cost is often overlooked. Remember, it’s not just how much money you can potentially lose on a given position, it’s the opportunity to make money elsewhere that you are missing out on while that position remains in your portfolio. This “Opportunity Cost”, is the type of risk that we like to refer to as, “A waste of money”. Today I want to point out what waste of both time and money it has been to be in Bank Of America over the past 2 years. But things could be about to change… [Read more…]
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