I just finished my Commodities and Currencies review for the week and wanted to share some of my notes. Here you go: [Read more…]
From the desk of Thomas Bruni @brunicharting
Over the past five years or so, USD/CHF has been laying the foundation for a structural breakout, a structural breakout that looks to be in its early stages as 2016 begins. Before I get into the price action, I think it’s important to understand the context that this move is occurring within.
From a sentiment perspective, my data suggests that commercial hedger positioning and public sentiment are both at neutral levels. Sentiment is only important at extremes, which I don’t see currently, therefore this will be the extent to which I discuss it in this post. In terms of seasonality, my data suggests that over the past thirty years, January-March has been the worst three month period of the year for Swiss Franc performance. The combination of these factors [Read more…]
Commodities and Currencies are telling an interesting story. When you go through each of them one by one, you start to recognize ongoing themes, whether in energy, metals or agriculture. In addition, based on specific strength and weakness in different currencies around the globe, that information can be used in multiple ways. Using intermarket analysis, we can take that information and use it in the equities market, or go ahead and trade the commodities and currencies directly using Futures, Forex or ETFs. Either way, it’s worth doing the homework.
I just finished my Commodities and Currencies review and updated all of them in the Chartbook. It’s nice to see Oil and Copper rallying as we discussed in the most recent letter. I think this theme continues [Read more…]
MKM’s Katie Stockton Discussing (not so) Extreme Sentiment Readings (CNBC)
SP500 Playing From One Range Value Area to the Next Reference Level (AfraidtoTrade)
‘All or Nothing Days – S&P500 A/D Line: Number of +/- 400 Days (Bespoke)
Comparing Gold’s Move to the Nasdaq Circa 1990-2000 (PhilPearlman)
Moise Levi: Major Breakout for Rough Rice (AlphaGlobalInvestors)
Gold – Pulling back from Resistance of its Accelerated Uptrend (ChartOfTheDay)
Citigroup is Bearish as Franc Breaches Moving Average (Bloomberg)
S&P500 Correlations Hit Record As Stocks Move in Masse (MoneyGame)
Video: Oppenheimer’s Carter Worth Explains Why He Expects A Risk-On Rally (CNBC)
Possible Bottom in Stocks – US Dollar Set to Collapse (PeterLBrandt)
Housing Tracker: Homes For Sale Inventory Down 14.1% Year-Over-Year in July (CalculatedRisk)
Corporate Profits, Economic Growth, and Equity Valuation (EconomPicData)
Economist – When the going gets tough, investors buy two assets: gold and the Swiss franc. Gold’s all-time peak in real terms was in 1980 when inflationary fears were particularly intense. That followed a long period of Swiss-franc strength in the 1970s, which forced the government to impose negative interest rates in a bid to dissuade foreigners from opening bank accounts in the currency. With investors now worried about European sovereign debt and the crisis over the American debt ceiling, it is not surprising that both assets are popular again. Gold has been hitting nominal highs, while the Swiss franc has reached a record in real trade-weighted terms (ie, against the country’s trading partners). The Swiss have both a fiscal and a current-account surplus, a low inflation rate and a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio.