I just finished my Commodities and Currencies review for the week and wanted to share some of my notes. Here you go: [Read more…]
Commodities and Currencies are telling an interesting story. When you go through each of them one by one, you start to recognize ongoing themes, whether in energy, metals or agriculture. In addition, based on specific strength and weakness in different currencies around the globe, that information can be used in multiple ways. Using intermarket analysis, we can take that information and use it in the equities market, or go ahead and trade the commodities and currencies directly using Futures, Forex or ETFs. Either way, it’s worth doing the homework.
I just finished my Commodities and Currencies review and updated all of them in the Chartbook. It’s nice to see Oil and Copper rallying as we discussed in the most recent letter. I think this theme continues [Read more…]
Thank you to everyone who registered for the new All Star Charts membership. I’m super excited to have you guys as part of our team. Remember, we’re all in this together trying to navigate through this market day in and day out. It’s a puzzle that is constantly evolving and what we’re here to do is look for major trends around the world and then break those down to find more intermediate-term investing opportunities based on those structural setups. The new All Star Charts was an idea we’ve been working on for a long time, so we couldn’t be happier to finally be able to share the ideas and the homework that I already do with all of our new members. Welcome to our club!
For the past 2 months I’ve been very vocal about how there’s been no reason to own the major U.S. Stock Market Averages. If there’s been any trade to be made, it’s [Read more…]
We’re already in March. That was fast wasn’t it? So how are things going so far? It’s a new year full of new stories. Less Taper, more Ukraine. But who’s leading and who is lagging?
Coming into today Commodities are the big winner so far for 2014. The Equal Weight Continuous Commodity Index is up almost 10%. Treasury bonds have been a big winner as well. With interest rates getting smoked this year, my favorite t-bond benchmark $TLT is up 7.5% year-to-date. Meanwhile the S&P500 coming into Tuesday is basically flat for 2014.
Here are the individual sectors so far this year. The big winners are Healthcare and Utilities, up 6.4% and 5.5% respectively. The rest of the sectors are up or down 2% and not really making much noise yet:
And here are a bunch of stock markets from around the world. Latin America is the big loser so far down over 10% YTD. This should be no surprise as it has been a serial underperformer for years. Japan has been getting hit as well, but not as bad as China (down almost 9%). Things have been much more quiet in North America with both the US and Canada flat in 2014:
We all know Coffee has been a monster so far this year. But most of the other commodities are doing well also. Gold and Silver are up 12% and 10% respectively, Oil and Natural Gas are each up over 6% and one of my favorites: Corn is up 11.5%. I know the energy names usually get all the attention, which is why most commodity indices are heavily weighted with Oil & Gas. But I prefer to use an equal-weighted measure as you can see in the chart above:
And that’s 2014 so far folks. What do you think? More of this to come? Or will equities finally get going? And not just in the US, but around the world?
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