I like to keep an open mind. The one thing I’m certain of is that I’m not certain of anything. So I weigh all of the evidence and then try to find the best risk vs reward opportunities based on the cards that we’ve been dealt. We can’t let our emotions impact our decision making, it has to be 100% dependent on the data at hand. Today, I think one of the more interesting situations is in the US Dollar Index. [Read more…]
I just finished my Commodities and Currencies review for the week and wanted to share some of my notes. Here you go: [Read more…]
From the desk of Thomas Bruni @brunicharting
Over the past five years or so, USD/CHF has been laying the foundation for a structural breakout, a structural breakout that looks to be in its early stages as 2016 begins. Before I get into the price action, I think it’s important to understand the context that this move is occurring within.
From a sentiment perspective, my data suggests that commercial hedger positioning and public sentiment are both at neutral levels. Sentiment is only important at extremes, which I don’t see currently, therefore this will be the extent to which I discuss it in this post. In terms of seasonality, my data suggests that over the past thirty years, January-March has been the worst three month period of the year for Swiss Franc performance. The combination of these factors [Read more…]
We have to trade and invest in the market that we have in front of us, not the one that we want. Therefore we have to be able to approach the market from a completely unbiased perspective. We don’t care if the market doubles in price or if it gets cut in half. We want to try to take advantage of moves in both directions. This is America after all.
I know it’s not sexy, but since October 23rd, we have wanted to approach the major U.S. stock market averages from a more neutral perspective. This is the day that both the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average first got above what was then, and still is, a flat 200 day simple moving average. Securities in that sort of environment create headaches, for both the bulls and the bears. The reason is because [Read more…]