As we close out 2015, one of the biggest stories of the year has to be the crash in Energy prices. The CRB Commodities Index is heavily weighted in Energy and, as an Index, has fallen over 20% this year now down almost 65% from its peak in 2008. Here is how I think we can profit from this in 2016: [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- What We Need to See For Crude Oil To Bottom
- How High Yield (Junk) Bonds will Move in January
- What the Period of the Santa Claus Rally Really Means
- Is The U.S. Dollar Still a Short?
- How Crude Oil could affect Energy Stocks in the First Quarter
- What do we do with Uranium in 2016
Thank you to everyone who registered for the new All Star Charts membership. I’m super excited to have you guys as part of our team. Remember, we’re all in this together trying to navigate through this market day in and day out. It’s a puzzle that is constantly evolving and what we’re here to do is look for major trends around the world and then break those down to find more intermediate-term investing opportunities based on those structural setups. The new All Star Charts was an idea we’ve been working on for a long time, so we couldn’t be happier to finally be able to share the ideas and the homework that I already do with all of our new members. Welcome to our club!
For the past 2 months I’ve been very vocal about how there’s been no reason to own the major U.S. Stock Market Averages. If there’s been any trade to be made, it’s [Read more…]
For the past few weeks I’ve been writing a weekly open letter to readers about what I’m seeing across the stock market, bond market, commodities and currencies. The feedback I’ve received has been unlike any other time in the 5 year history of All Star Charts. I want to thank all of you for that. I think this is something that I will have to continue to do and make it a regular part of my routine. I’ve done this sort of thing in the past while managing money in order to keep our investors up to date on how we want to approach the marketplace. The format you’re seeing here is no different. Please feel free to keep emailing me and contacting me via Stocktwits or Twitter on how it can improve and what sort of things you guys want me to talk about.
Starting with the U.S. Stock Market, this as a group continues to be in no-man’s land. When price is near a flat 200 day simple moving average, the market is suggesting that there is [Read more…]
November 18, 2015
We are just about 6 weeks away from finishing up 2015 and as usual there are a lot of questions left unanswered. Now is as good of a time as any to look back at how we got here so we can take a weight-of-the-evidence approach and put together a thesis of what we should expect going forward. At AllStarCharts, we prefer to incorporate a global top/down approach focusing our attention on various liquid asset classes with exposure both domestically and outside of the United States. With our long/short mentality, we look for opportunities to profit from both good and bad markets striving for absolute returns regardless of the economic environment.
Today we’ll start with the U.S. Stock Market which is relatively flat year-to-date. In large-caps, the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone nowhere this year, while the leader has been the Nasdaq100 (up 10% YTD) and the laggard is obviously the Dow Jones Transportation Average (down over 10% YTD). With the tremendous amount of dislocation between Transports and the Tech-heavy Nasdaq, we’ll call that a wash and chalk this year up as flat, at least for now. The problem is, that the indexes don’t tell the whole story. Even before the August sell-off, the amount of stocks still making new highs was an embarrassment as only a small percentage of them were still rallying. The Consumer Discretionary space and the Dow Jones Internet Index were two standouts without much company. Looking at things today, and over the past few weeks, even fewer names are participating. The Nasdaq100 was the only index to make new highs this month as the rest rolled over putting in lower highs across the board.
The word “Distribution” really explains what is going on here in the U.S. Stock market. We can see a massive topping pattern forming in the S&P500 right at the 161.8% extension of the entire 2007-2009 decline. We don’t look at this as a coincidence. This distribution is also taking place at exactly the March 2000 highs for both the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq100. Again, not something we consider to be a coincidence. The question we want to ask going forward is simple: with very few sectors and stocks in the market left participating to the upside, is this the tell before a much bigger sell-off, or will certain sectors take leadership and carry this market higher going forward? In the S&P500 alone, almost 70% of stocks have corrected over 10% and close to 40% of them have fallen over 20%. Will this “market of stocks” collectively stabilize, rotate leadership and head higher? I would argue that no, this is definitely the lower probability outcome and in all likelihood we are heading much lower. From a risk vs reward standpoint, this still very much favors the bears. My levels are 114.40 for $QQQ AND 2080 for the S&P500. We only want to be short these averages if prices are below them and neutral if we are above.
Within the U.S. stock market, since we have a negative bias, we want to focus our attention on the laggards. With the Dow Jones Transportation Average easily the worst of the bunch, I think Airlines are the ones we want to short. Looking specifically at the Amex Airlines Index, we are seeing the exact opposite of what we saw in March 2009. If you recall, while the market as a group was putting in lower lows in the first quarter of 2009, the Airlines held in showing the relative strength at the time to spark a 330% rally, which by far and away outperformed the S&P500 and other indexes. Today, it is the relative weakness that is standing out as this index has been making lower lows all year in an environment where the other indexes continued higher into the Summer. The uptrend line from the 2009 lows in the Amex Airlines Index has now been broken and over the past few weeks have successfully retested it and rolled over. Momentum is in a strong bearish range and prices are trending below a downward sloping 200 day moving average. Bad things tend to happen in this type of environment. We want to be aggressively short a basket of these airlines as long as prices remain below the broken uptrend line from the 2009 lows. I would be adding to shorts if we break the lows from this week. Also see the ETF $JETS.
Looking more globally, it is hard to ignore the underperformance out of the New York Stock Exchange Composite. Although considered a local exchange, half of the biggest 100 names in this cap-weighted composite are foreign companies. The relative weakness here is further evidence that the U.S. is still the leader compared with the majority of the international stocks markets. The emerging space is particularly weak as the S&P500 is sitting at or near 11-year highs relative to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. In the more developed countries, the Japanese Nikkei has held in relatively well compared to the U.S., but is currently in no-man’s land at best. Whether looking at the Nikkei specifically, or the Hedged Japan ETF $DXJ, which we like to use, with prices trading near flat long-term smoothing mechanisms, this is a headache waiting to happen and we want to stay away from it. I would put Germany in a similar neutral category, but leaning on the bearish side on both as we are below broken support which is new overhead supply in the Nikkei and the DAX.
On the long side of the International markets, I think the potential for further mean reversion in Latin America is certainly there, but it’s the probability, or lack thereof, that annoys me. We are focused on the Latin America 40 Index ETF $ILF and specifically within that group, the MSCI Brazil Index ETF $EWZ. Coincidentally, it would take breakouts above $25 in each of these to get me bullish and long for that mean reversion towards 28. But that’s all I’m seeing there.
Crude Oil is likely to have an impact in this space. I’ve been in the camp that Oil has bottomed out, although tactically I see little reason to be long from current levels. I’d like to see more backing and filling to create a base large enough to get this one going. Looking at this from a more structural perspective, the high 30s-low 40s was where Crude Oil prices would peak throughout the 1980s and 90s. Once that range broke out to the upside after the turn of the century, we expect this to be an area where prices bottom out instead. So I think we’re close. We are watching Heating Oil and Unleaded Gasoline futures as the tell. If prices can get and hold above the lows from throughout 2015, which are awfully close, I think that Oil can bottom out. If we start to see new lows holding in these other energy commodities, I think we’re in a lot of trouble in Crude Oil and anything with a positive correlation to the commodity.
Where I would prefer to focus my attention instead within energy is Natural Gas. In September of 2009, Natural Gas bottomed out at $1.92 before rallying above $7 over the next few months. In April 2012 the bottom was $1.83 before rallying over the next 2 years above $7 again. Last month Natural Gas hit $1.94 before reversing higher. This is one we want to own for a 20% rally here back towards $3. This is a tactical trade where for risk management purposes, nimble traders can use 2.40 as the line in the sand. Contracts roll next week, so adjust accordingly ($2.55 in Jan Futures). According to the CFTC, Commercial Hedgers, who we consider “the smart money”, currently have one of their largest long positions of all time. Bigger picture, the Crude Oil:Natural Gas ratio continues to fall. This bubble peaked at over 50:1 in early 2012 and the mean reversion back to the single digits is running its course. Today the ratio sits around 18:1, from a high of over 50:1 with a long-term average near 10:1. Also remember that we are in a reversion beyond the mean business, and not just a reversion to the mean. So an overshoot into the single digits in the ratio is most likely.
Moving over to the precious metals space, it’s hard to find a more beautiful downtrend out there in the world. With prices hitting new 5-year lows this week, sentiment is nowhere near as pessimistic as it has been at prior temporary lows in 2013 and 2014. I think this bullish (less bearish) outlook from the public will be the catalyst to take Gold under $1000 and Silver under $12. The risk/reward today is not as clean as it once was a few weeks back, but the trend here is lower and we want to continue to fade any strength in metals.
The U.S. Dollar should have an impact in this group as it has consolidated its gains from the past few years in one of the healthiest consolidations across the global marketplace. Back in March, we saw the most bullish sentiment towards the Dollar in history. The Commercial Hedgers were selling this thing like if it was going to zero. Anecdotally, the financial media who has never cared what I thought about the U.S. Dollar could not finish a phone call or email with me without asking my thoughts on the Dollar. Since then, however, the sentiment has dissipated and the hedgers have covered a lot of their bearish positions. It’s hard not to like the Dollar here. I think it continues to head higher after the recent breakout. This should have negative implications towards the Euro, which represents close to 60% of the U.S. Dollar Index. I would expect the Euro to continue to fall along with precious metals as we head into the first quarter of next year.
Next we turn to the Bond market. The collective waste of time of arguing about fed hikes or not continues to dominate the airwaves and interwebs. We try and ignore what the Fed has to say as much as we can and even more so Wall Street Economists. There is no group on planet earth that has been more wrong about anything as Wall Street Economists have been about the Fed. We prefer instead to focus on price, which at the end of the day is the only thing that will pay us. First of all, we are talking about a 35 year bear market for rates. Things don’t just turn on a dime. So to blindly short the bond market because “rates can’t go any lower” makes zero sense to us. Now, the short end of the curve and the long end are two different things. The 2-year US Treasury bond yield is highs this week not seen since 2010, but the 30-year yield hit fresh lows earlier this year and has not shown any signs of a major bottom. This dislocation has caused the yield curve to narrow. Note that an inversion of the yield curve (short-term rates exceeding long-term rates) is a heads up of a pending economic recession.
Since we don’t have time to sit around waiting for yield curve inversions, we prefer to focus on the here and now. Looking at the 10-year yield, widely considered the benchmark for U.S. Interest Rates, it’s the 2.4% level that stands out the most. This was the low in rates in 2010 and also twin highs in late 2011 and early 2012. We kissed that this month and quickly rolled over. Going forward, this is our line in the sand. As long as the 10-year is below 2.4%, we want to be buying U.S. Treasury Bonds very aggressively, particularly the 30-year Futures $ZB_F. Equity traders can turn to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF $TLT or $TLT options for non-futures exposure. We are not expecting any rate hikes in 2016 and regardless of any rumors, we want to be buying bonds here.
That’s it for now. Please feel free to write with any questions or comments that you may have.
Note: In next week’s letter we will spend time looking at Biotechnology, Palladium, Agricultural commodities and equities and some individual U.S. stocks like Apple, Amazon and Netflix on both the long and the short side.
Tags: $SPY $QQQ $UNG $USO $CL_F $NG_F $GC_F $GLD $SI_F $SLV $UUP $DX_F $EURUSD $FXE $TNX $TLT $ZB_F $HO_F $RB_F $EWG $DAX $NIKK $DXJ $USDJPY $6J_F $FXY $ILF $EWZ $XAL $JETS
It’s been a while since I’ve written about Crude Oil here on the blog. It’s a topic that has been coming up more often recently as prices are hitting levels not seen in over 6 years. Just because something is in the news a lot doesn’t mean it is a market that is worth our participation. In fact, more often than not, if it’s all over the news, you probably either missed it, or you’re too early. We have preferred to stay away from Crude Oil since it broke the uptrend line from the March lows. This occurred in mid-May after a 30% rally in Crude Oil that was sparked from the failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence that we were pointing to in March. This worked out well the first time around and now I believe we are about to see something similar.
Technical analysis is not an exact science. For that matter, any form of market analysis is subjective and can be better categorized as an art, even fundamental analysis. There are no perfect right or wrong answers. By definition, no one knows what will happen in the future. Today I think I can provide a good example of a subjective approach to a market that may or may not work, but at least there is a risk vs reward opportunity that is skewed towards one side. In a similar way to how in March, we did not know whether Oil prices could climb back above the January lows (although we hoped for it), today we do not know if Oil prices can climb back above $43 to trigger another entry point for us. Let me explain.
Here is a daily candlestick chart of Crude Oil futures breaking down to lows not seen since 2009. There are a few things going on here that I think are worth pointing out. First of all, prices have now come down to the downtrend line connecting troughs since those January lows. There are multiple downtrend lines here because both make sense. We therefore look at this as more of a support “area”, than an exact point. In addition, we are just below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the January rally. Remember this January bounce is the reason we liked it in March in the first place. So we will continue to refer to this move going forward as the most relevant move.
Again, this is an art and not an exact science. Maybe the market will roll over again and not bottom out until prices reach fibonacci extension levels based on the entire March-May rally. We have no idea. But the weight-of-the-evidence is suggesting that this area near $41.50-43 is worth watching as a possible entry for a mean reversion.
In addition, sentiment has now come down to levels not seen since December of 2001. If you recall, this was when Oil bottomed out after peaking in the Fall of 2000 just before it rallied from $17 towards $150. Our sentiment data suggests we are at a similar bearish consensus (via SentimentTrader.com).
From an execution standpoint, I think it’s pretty simple. Based on this $43 level representing the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of that key January rally, I do not see any reason to be long Crude Oil if we are below that. This is our line in the sand. If prices are above that, then I can make an argument to be aggressively long only above $43. Since those January lows were such an important support level, I would expect there to be some sort of reaction upon retesting that price. This overhead supply should become resistance on any strength towards that area. Notice how in late July after breaking those January lows, prices bounced off the March lows, retested the January lows, and then rolled over again. This reiterates to us how important $49.50 is going forward. From a tactical perspective I would be a seller of strength into that price. This represents about 15% of upside near term with very well-defined risk (only long above 43).
If prices are able to get back and hold above $49.50 then I can see potential for more mean reversion towards the downward sloping 200 day moving average and former support that broke in June near the high 50s. But I don’t see any sense in worrying about that at this point. I would rather wait and make those decisions if and when we ever get up there.
What do you guys think?
Tags: $CL_F $USO
Thursday morning I was on the Benzinga morning radio show chatting with the guys about the S&P500 as well as some individual stocks and commodities. I really enjoy doing this show because they like to focus on the market and price behavior, as do I. The sector rotation we’re seeing makes me a lot more bullish than what the frustrating sideways action in the major averages might indicate on the surface.
Here is the audio in full:
[soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/206531263″ params=”auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false&visual=true” width=”100%” height=”250″ iframe=”true” /]
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Tags: $SPY $DJIA $TNX $TLT $ZB_F $CL_F $GS $LL $TRV $DJT $IYT $XAL $AAL $DAL $JETS
Thursday morning I was on the Benzinga morning radio show chatting with the guys about the S&P500 as well as some individual stocks and commodities. I really enjoy doing this show because they like to focus on the market and price behavior, as do I. We don’t have time to be telling stories, so we focus on price, which is the only thing that pays us.
Here is the audio in full:
[soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/204343081″ params=”auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false&visual=true” width=”100%” height=”250″ iframe=”true” /]
If you enjoyed this PreMarket commentary, Click Here find out how you can receive weekly newsletters from JC and Eagle Bay Solutions.
Tags: $AAPL $SPY $ZW_F $WEAT $TLT $TNX $TSLA $PA_F $SWC $NG_F $UNG $USO $CL_F $DIS
Now that we’re officially a third of the way through 2015, I think it’s a good time to reflect on what we’ve seen so that we can get a better idea of where we might be headed. I’ve taken a little bit of time off from the blog as we held very high cash positions over the past few weeks, but I’m back and want to share some thoughts.
As far as the major U.S. Averages go, I think structurally they all look fine and are still in strong bull markets. I find it tough to argue against that. From a more tactical perspective, these consolidations over the past few months look constructive to me and I would expect breakouts to new highs at some point soon. I won’t be loading up on Index ETFs or futures through; I think there are better opportunities within individual sectors.
A year like this is very frustrating for the passive investor who owns the averages and doesn’t take advantage of the overwhelming dispersion we are seeing between stocks as sector rotation has ruled the land so far. Look at areas like Energy, base metals and emerging markets for example, that were left for dead, absolutely dominating recently (see here).
One of the reasons we’ve held large cash positions the past few weeks is because a lot of our upside targets that we had coming into April were hit a lot quicker that we expected. It’s not a bad thing, but when targets are hit I think it’s important to back off. I still like this emerging, energy, base metal theme going forward, but I think it’s important to pick and choose our spots. The entries today are not as favorable as they were, say a month ago.
I’m happy to see the U.S. Dollar get crushed the past 6 weeks. I’ve never seen such consensus bullish US Dollar sentiment. That was nuts (see here). The easy money has been made on the short side here, but I think this unwind continues. The US Dollar Index itself hit some very important upside targets in mid-March (see here), so I’d bet it’s going to take some time for this to unwind. I would not be buying US Dollars for anything other than just a very very short-term trade. I like the others, particularly Canadian Dollars, which I have liked since they broke out in Mid-April. But just like in the sectors mentioned before, the entry point today is no longer as favorable as it was last month.
In the bond market, I am happy to see rates mean revert while bonds get hit hard. I’ve liked the Long Crude Oil / Short Treasury Bond trade and still think this mean reversion has legs (see here). The ratio in the USO/TLT pair, which allows you to express this trade using ETFs, is near 0.16 up 30% from the lows in March, but still a ways away from our 0.21 target.
Bigger picture, I still think interest rates stay down. Economists continue to get this wrong and since they don’t actually put money to work, they keep making the same wrong call over and over again. Meanwhile, the fed fund futures market which has been dead on this whole time continues to point to low rates. They are currently pricing in just a 46% probability of a rate hike at the late October meeting. I’m still in the camp, like I have been, that they do nothing this year.
Coal is an area that looks interesting down here. As these beat up sectors like Energy, Base Metals and Emerging Markets mean revert to the upside, Coal has participated a little bit but not as much as the others. I think we can see significant upside from some of these coal stocks. We’re paying close attention to this space entering the middle third of the year.
The Agribusiness sector has really caught my eye. When you look at a sector ETF like $MOO which seeks to track to Market Vectors Global Agribusiness Index, it’s hard to find a nicer base out there. Look at this index on multiple timeframes and tell me that a breakout isn’t going to be extremely powerful. The only thing that has held me back is the flat 200 day and 200 week moving averages. If these smoothing mechanisms can start to slope up, we want to be all over this space, particularly from a structural perspective. This index is loaded up in agricultural stocks like John Deere, Agrium, Monstanto, Potash, etc. This sector has my attention.
Globally, I’d say that a big theme is countries hitting our upside targets. When you look at China, Japan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Malaysia, Australia and Vietnam, they have already reached our objectives. So at this point, it’s hard to find good entries globally. I think a lot of easy money has been made around the world, so it’s hard to put new money to work here. I’d say one area we are looking at closely that has yet to take off on us is Taiwan. We’ll be watching these guys closely this month as their long-term smoothing mechanisms begin to slope up.
Finally Natural Gas is an interesting area we want to watch. We are coming off bearish extremes in sentiment that we haven’t seen since 2002. Meanwhile, the Commercial Hedgers, who we consider to be “the smart money”, has the most net long exposure that we’ve ever seen. These factors accompanied by bullish momentum divergences on multiple timeframes point to a mean reversion here to around $3.40. With prices currently under $2.80, this risk/reward favors the bulls. We’re not in but will be looking for entry points in the coming weeks.
That’s what’s going on in my head.
What are you guys thinking here?
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Tags: $SPY $DJIA $NG_F $UNG $USO $CL_F $ZB_F $TLT $TNX $MOO $MON $MOS $DE $AGU $POT $KOL $UUP $DX_F $6C_F $USDCAD $FXC $XLE $EEM $VNM $FXI $DXJ $EWM $EPHE $EWH $KOL $BTU
Since we entered the second quarter of 2015, I’ve been very vocal about how I feel about the US Dollar up here and how I think we can benefit from the currency continuing to weaken since peaking a month ago. I like the beat up emerging markets mean reverting here and think that Energy and Energy related stocks and countries can benefit as well. But also within that theme, I believe the base metal complex can do well in that environment. To me, this all fits together.
We’ve been all over the Energy trade for a while (see here and here), so now I want to turn our attention to Base Metals. We look at Copper as a leading indicator and it’s already up 12% since the January lows and as much as 20% at last months highs. I think the correction we’ve seen the past couple of weeks is just temporary and we head higher. So how do we want to take advantage of this? I like the Metals & Mining Sector.
Here is a daily candlestick chart of the S&P Metals & Mining ETF $XME. To me, this is the cleanest way to explain what’s going on. It’s very simple: We have a very clear downtrend line from last September’s highs. This is where the recent collapse first got started after a huge rally over the previous year. So it makes sense to use this as our reference point:
As the price of this exchange traded fund tries to break out above this downtrend line, it is also approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle since last month well-defined by two converging trendlines. We are looking for a simultaneous breakout above both of these to confirm that we are heading higher and that it deserves our involvement.
The catalyst to do this I believe is the bullish momentum divergence at last month’s lows. Similar to what we saw in Crude Oil and Emerging Markets, momentum in the Base Metal complex put in a higher lows last month while prices made lower lows not seen since March of 2009. Does that month mean anything to you?
We want to be aggressive buyers of a breakout. This is not something we want to be involved with if we are below these trend lines. So this makes the risk/reward very much skewed in favor of the bulls here as the risk cannot be any more well-defined. Companies in this space include the Steel stocks like US Steel, AK Steel, Steel Dynamics and Reliance, but also names like Freeport-McMoRan, Hecla Mining and Royal Gold. This is a very diversified ETF with its largest holdings representing just over 4% of the fund. We like that.
Tags: $XME $FCX $X $AKS $STLD $HL $RGLD $RS $HG_F $UUP $CNX $EEM $CL_F $USO $JJG
How many people do you know that have this trade on right now. I tell people I like this pair trade and they look at me like I have six heads. We love that.
First of all, let me start out by saying how weird it feels to be short treasury bonds. I’ve loved these guys for so long that it’s crazy (see Dec 16 2013, Jan 6 2014 & March 24 2014). But hey, when the data changes you have to change your stance right? I preach constantly how important it is to keep an open, so I guess I’m taking my own advice. Here’s what I see. I think it’s simple: Our upside target in Bonds was $TLT back up to $132 which were the 2012 highs. This was a logical target for me. We finally hit that in January and I backed off the bonds trade. I didn’t get short, but it was no longer for me. We kept rallying a bit after that for a couple of weeks and then it came crashing down.
After a nice little bounce last month, bonds rallied back up to that original $132 target. That’s the brick wall I see. If prices remain below that, I think this is an easy short. Meanwhile, look at interest rates. This is the 10-year yield falling back down but holding on to the October lows. This is the big level for me. If rates remain above that 1.87% area I think they mean revert back towards 2.2%:
As far as Crude Oil goes, it has been well publicized that I’ve liked it since they originally broke out last month (see Here and Here). Nothing has changed since then and everything we hoped for as far as confirmation was concerned, we’ve seen happen very nicely. So no reason to go over it again.
Finally, here is the chart of the pair itself. I think there is a ton of upside mean reversion here. It just makes sense. Look at the bullish momentum divergences and brief failed breakdown on the pair below the late February lows:
How many people do you know think that bonds get crushed and Oil rips? I don’t know many….
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Tags: $USO $CL_F $TLT $ZB_F $ZN_F $TNX $OIL
Last week I was over at Fox Business chatting with Liz Claman about the Russian stock market. I first starting put this out there on the first day of the quarter on Yahoo Finance. Since it was April 1st, I actually got some emails wondering if it was an April Fool’s joke. But nothing to joke about here, we starting buying as we came into the quarter so Fox asked me to come on and discuss. I like energy as a group, and Russian stocks move with oil (see here). I’m looking for these upside mean reversions to happen together.
Here’s the video in full:
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Tags: $RSX $RUBL $SOCL $TCEHY $SPY $USO $CL_F $XLE $OIH $XOP $RUSL $EEM