Two weeks ago I put out my Q3 Playbook, so you guys know how I feel about most things. Not much has changed in July. So for this month’s call, I wanted to open it up to whatever you guys wanted to talk about. During the first half of the video there are some points that I definitely wanted to make sure I got across. The rest of the time I just answered questions, many of which were very good and relevant to today’s market environment. You can watch the entire video here and download the PDF of the slide deck. [Read more…]
Have you heard that story yet about how Amazon is destroying traditional retailers?
Let me ask you: Is this actually the case? Is this it for retailers? It’s over?
Fortunately we have actual data that can help us answer this question. We’re not making guesses based on estimates that will be revised 20 times over the next few quarters. As Technicians we know what is actually taking place between the buyers and sellers for these stocks. It’s up to us to make the correct interpretations, of course, but that price data is the only reliable data in existence when it comes to retail stocks.
This is the infamous chart of the S&P Retail Index, which is equally weighted. So in this chart, Amazon does not represent a large percentage of the index. Each retail stock, about 94 of them, are weighted approximately the same across the board. [Read more…]
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We’ve been bullish towards US and Global Stocks once again since May. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. What we’re seeing in the bond market, however, is suggesting interest rates are still heading higher. The implications here for assets like Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the US Dollar is also important to recognize.
I’ll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday July 19th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
With Chemical Stocks breaking out to all-time highs, I can’t think of a better time than now to do a deep dive analysis on what is going on in the space. You guys know how much I’ve liked the Chemicals for a while now. This has been a monster since early last year and then picked up again after last summer.
When we talk about the Materials Sector, Chemicals aren’t exactly the first thing that might come to mind. But if you dig deep into the Materials space, it is clear that the Chemicals are the leadership sub-group within the broader sector. Today we’re going to dive in and see what is really going on here. [Read more…]
Today we’re going to focus on what is taking place specifically in the Consumer Discretionary space. This is one of the largest sectors in the S&P500 with respects to the number of components, but the differences between all of the stocks in the group really stand out. While we are seeing some strength in Online Retail and some of the Homebuilders, the Apparel and Traditional Retailer space look terrible. So we don’t just want to be buying this sector blindly. I think we need to pick and choose our spots.
In this report I wanted to do a deeper dive into Consumer Discretionary to try and determine the direction of the next major moves and how to best take advantage of it: [Read more…]
This is JC’s Playbook to Profit In Q3: [Read more…]
Here is the video recording of the June 2017 Monthly Conference Call for Members Only
In the call we discuss
- A lot to Talk About Today. Review, Pause, Rewind
- PDFs of Deck Will Be Available As Always
- Uptrends in US Stocks
- More Uptrends in International Stock Markets
- Sector Rotation Into Financials and Industrials
- Commodities, Currencies and Bonds
The Bond Market is a very misunderstood place. Usually all we hear are complaints. Fed this, Yellen that, something about her books being beige. I don’t know. I can’t keep up anymore. To me the Bond Market is place to find information that we can’t get anywhere else. Even if you don’t trade bonds, you must care about the direction of interest rates. But more importantly it’s the intermarket implications of movements in rates that we’re most concerned about. How is the next 3-6 month direction of interest rates and credit spreads going to affect stocks and commodities? WAs investors we’re obviously interested in all of these things.
Let’s get right into it: [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- New All-time Highs In Major US Indexes
- Transports to Outperform Industrials This Summer?
- London FTSE100, Germany, France, India all Break out to all-time highs
- Technology Leading in U.S.: Targets Updated
- What If Those Are NOT Head & Shoulders Tops in Banks?
- Energy is a ‘No Touch’ or a short
- Industrials Continue to Break Out: Railroads & Airlines
- “Defense” Sectors Are Also Participating To The Upside
It’s the end of the month so you know what that means: Brand new freshly completed monthly candlesticks for us to review. While I normally use weekly charts to get structural perspective on markets and then daily charts for tactical purposes, the monthly chart review is done at the end of each month to help identify the primary trends around the market. This is for us who want to avoid the day to day noise surrounding politics or the Fed or whatever news story is being sensationalized this week.