The relative weakness of the Nifty Free Float Smallcap 100 has been a theme all throughout 2018, so with today’s chart of the week I want to take a look at what that potentially means for the broader market.
I’m having a great time here in Mumbai at the 7th annual Traders Carnival. I had the opportunity to sit down with Navneet SalujaDsouza from Bloomberg Quint to discuss my process and approach to markets.
Here is the video in full:
From the Desk of Tom Bruni
This past Wednesday I had the privilege of joining 7 world-class Market Technicians in the Stocktoberfest East Chart Battle Competition. It was a lot of fun to share my work with the 450+ conference attendees and surreal to share the stage with people I’ve learned from since day one of learning Technical Analysis. With that being said, I was knocked out in the second round by Charlie Bilello so I’m writing this post to show all three of my ideas in their entirety. [Read more…]
This is the most valuable analysis I do every month. When you sit there with some music on and just rip through monthly charts, it really gives you perspective. We’re taking a step back and reanalyzing the trends. It’s easy to get caught in the day-to-day noise. This exercise helps avoid getting whipped around. I encourage everyone to make their own list of Monthly Candles. [Read more…]
As homo sapiens we’re hard wired to feel the need to gossip. This goes back hundreds of thousands of years throughout evolution. We still see it today and through the speed of communication technology, that gossip gets amplified. While some would argue the issues of today’s society are unique, anyone who studies history knows that none of what we’re seeing today is new.
It’s our job as investors to be aware of this cognitive behavior flaw and work on avoiding the potentially disastrous implications of allowing our evolutionary gossip habits to enter into our portfolio decision making process. I’ve seen some amazing technicians and traders let their political opinions get in the way of their “process” and watched their horrible downfall. It’s been heart wrenching to watch, but the lessons learned by witnessing their collapse is something that will stay with me forever.
The current political and economic environment is unique in it’s own way, but they always are. Rather than focusing on the noise, I’ve found it extremely valuable to pay attention to the only thing that actually pays us: price.
I rip through 5000 charts a week, and most of the time even more than that. We’re talking U.S. Stocks and Sectors, European stocks, indexes and sectors, India, Southeast Asia and Latin America. I’m searching far and wide for signs of all of these troubles that I keep hearing about in the
gossip news outlets. I just don’t see it. To the contrary, I see healthy sector rotation, consistency in positive breadth and momentum, and an overwhelming amount of bullish signs relative to any bearish ones.
You guys know which stocks and sectors I like. That hasn’t changed at all in the past week. So rather than reiterate some of the more favorable risk vs reward opportunists I see out there, the Trade Ideas page is available for Premium Members here. Instead, today I want to focus on a few things I see out in the world that make me look at the glass half full, rather than half empty like so many people I see doing out there. [Read more…]
We want to be buying stocks. I don’t think I can be any more clear about that.
You guys know me as the obnoxiously bullish guy the past couple of years in the midst of “unprecedented pessimism”. I’m willing to admit that I have an unfair advantage that I just pay attention to price and purposely ignore everything else that most of you have to endure. This focus has allowed me to see clearly what is actually taking place instead of assuming that who I’m listening to or reading knows what’s going on.
Today I want to show you guys one single chart that I think tells the story of what the hell is going on here. It is awfully difficult for me to be bearish of stocks if the most important sectors in America are not just making new highs, but also breaking out to new relative highs. These leading sectors aren’t just doing well, they’re outperforming the rest. [Read more…]
This is the video recording of the February 2018 Conference Call. This month we’re starting with the weakness of the U.S. Dollar and how we can profit from the circumstances. The rotation into areas like Base Metals, Emerging Markets, Gold and Mining Stocks fits into that theme of weaker Dollars. We’re seeing strength in both develop market currencies and emerging.We’re seeing that strength in both developed market currencies and emerging.
Within the U.S., the relative strength continues to be in Financials and Technology, what I would consider to be the two most important sectors in America. Industrials and Transportation stocks look to rebound here as well. The weight of the evidence is suggesting that we want to be buying weakness in stocks, including the narrowing of credit spreads in the Bond Market and the outperformance from European and US Banks.
Here is the video in full where I lay out my best case for the coming weeks and months:
Long Precious Metals has been a big theme for us this year. I still think this is an area we need to be involved with and the weight-of-the-evidence is suggesting higher prices for the entire space.
Today I want to point out the recent breakout in Swiss Franc Futures. Historically there is a high positive correlation between this contract and the price of Gold. As we break out to new multi-year highs in Swissy, Gold looks likely to follow along: [Read more…]