With all the noise surrounding U.S. elections this month, we have seen very little coverage about the recent surge in base metal prices. Sure, everyone is talking about gold hitting a monthly high, but don’t let the shiny metal blind you to what is happening with such base metals as aluminum, nickel and tin. You don’t have to travel too far back in history to see what has happened to U.S. stocks when those base metals start making some noise. [Read more…]
Have you guys noticed that the prices of Gold and Silver have gone nowhere for 3 months? There’s a reason why we’ve wanted to stay out of this market since early July and let them digest their impressive gains since the January lows. Knowing when to stay out of a market is just as important as knowing when to be in it. Opportunity cost should also be considered in the risk calculation.
Today we are taking a deep dive into Gold and we’re going to look at things from all angles, all currencies and all time frames. [Read more…]
One of the benefits of it being 2016 is that global markets are more interrelated than ever before. We can take price data from the other side of the world and use it to take advantage of domestic markets in the United States as well as many other countries and asset classes. To purposely ignore what is taking place in markets around the world seems irresponsible at this point.
Today we are watching what Latin American stocks are suggesting for the next direction in Crude Oil prices: [Read more…]
For newer members I want to give a little bit of background on the 2016 Crude Oil Trade. Back in February our line in the sand was $29.60 based on multiple key Fibonacci extensions clustering together near that level. We wanted to be aggressively long Crude Oil along with energy stocks, emerging market country ETFs as well as the metals and mining stocks and commodities that had high correlations with that particular emerging space. With Crude Oil specifically, our tactical upside target was $38, and our longer-term target was $50. Both of these upside objectives have now been achieved.
So now what?
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Strength across the commodities complex has been a significant theme throughout 2016, but Feeder Cattle has not participated to the upside at all this year. It currently sits at near 3 year lows and is down 15% for the year, but recent price action suggests this market could be setting up for a monster squeeze to the upside.
Structurally, prices have been stuck in the 145-170 range since breaking the uptrend line from the November 2009 lows. Last week prices made new marginal lows as momentum diverged positively. If this sharp reversal back above the December lows holds until the end of the week, it would confirm that bullish divergence and failed breakdown from a structural perspective. The upside target for this potential move would be the YTD highs near 170. [Read more…]
From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting
Throughout 2016 the weight of the evidence has been building in favor of broad-based commodity strength and now Silver is joining the party with a massive structural breakout on both an absolute and relative basis.
Structurally Silver has been in a downtrend since 2011, but met our downside price targets near 14 over a year ago and has since been building a rounding bottom. Last week, prices broke and closed above the downtrend line from the 2011 highs to confirm the bullish momentum divergence and are following through to the upside this week. [Read more…]
From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting
The weight of the evidence has been building in favor of the bears over the last week or two, making the US equity weakness this week anything but surprising. Throughout the duration of this post I’ll outline the evidence that I’ve been noticing over the last two weeks and what it means for us as market participants moving forward.
Yen Strength – The Yen broke out structurally late last year and hasn’t looked back since. Tactically my upside targets were hit this week, but structurally this market has a lot more room to run. Given the high negative correlation between the Yen and US equities, this should continue to be a headwind for equity markets going forward. [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- At What Levels Do We Want To Be Short The U.S. Stock Market?
- Gold vs S&P500 – What Side Are You On?
- The Trade In Financials And Technology
- How Low Can U.S. Interest Rates Go?
- The Best Way To Profit From A Rising U.S. Dollar
- How Will This Yen Rally Impact Global Equities?
- Where Do We Take Profits In Biotechnology?