This is the video recording of our March 4th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Interest Rates Run Out of Gas
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
US Treasuries are taking a back seat to risk assets.
Bond market volatility is declining. Credit spreads are tightening. And Emerging Market high-yield bonds ($EMHY) are breaking out.
Meanwhile, stocks are posting new all-time highs.
So, how high will interest rates climb over the near term?
My gut tells me not far — at least not in the coming weeks or months…
[Premium] Mid-Month Conference Call Video Recording February 2024
This is the video recording of the February 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.
A Consolidation You Can’t Afford To Miss
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Fed Chair Jerome Powell continues to rule the markets with an iron fist, mercilessly punishing any who doubt his supreme will.
Or maybe I should stop daydreaming at my desk.
Either way, this little fantasy is a helluva lot more entertaining than the monotonous uptrend in US Treasury yields.
But I’ve found boredom – when not taken seriously – can lead to neglect.
That’s where process steps in to save the day.
It’s hard for the market to catch us off guard if we’re constantly reviewing the charts.
And these next two bond charts demand our full attention…
US Dollar Hits New 3-Month Highs, Zloty Falls to New Lows
Rates: Higher for Longer It Is!
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
Whenever a fellow parent asks what I do, I tell them I comment on interest rates.
I’m not involved in the semiconductor industry or the AI revolution. I don’t rob community banks (a personal favorite, despite mixed reactions). And I certainly do not analyze fixed-income, forex, and commodity markets (that’s a show-stopper).
The only thing people want to know these days – whether they’re navigating Wall St. or Main St. – is where rates are headed.
But no one seems to be listening to the one person who has a direct impact on the direction of US Treasury yields…
[Premium] Monthly Charts Strategy Session February 2024
This is the video recording of our February 5th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session
Buyers Lift the Offer for Bonds
From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley
The FOMC stuck to its script this week, kicking the can and keeping rates steady.
Everyone was expecting the news. But the market wasn’t expecting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (the man, the myth, the legend) to completely dash its hopes of a March cut.
Strangely enough, rates continue to fall on the news – even as markets adjust to the possibility of the initial rate cut now coming in May.
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