Mark Dow has been a favorite follow of mine on Twitter for a long time. His global macro perspective is directly in line with the way I view the world. We come from very different backgrounds, however. Mark worked for the U.S. Treasury Department in charge of Emerging Markets in the early 90s. After that he was a sovereign analyst at a Mutual Fund before running money for a Global Macro Hedge Fund in New York City. Today, Mark runs a Family Office from southern California and recently launched a Private Twitter Account that you can subscribe to called Behavioral Macro. In this conversation, Mark talks about the current environment for stocks, interest rates and the rotation into emerging markets and base metals. He brings a disciplined process and approach to the market that I’ve respected for many years. I really enjoyed this conversation with someone who I consider to be one of the smartest guys in the room. [Read more…]
This is the video recording of the February 2018 Conference Call. This month we’re starting with the weakness of the U.S. Dollar and how we can profit from the circumstances. The rotation into areas like Base Metals, Emerging Markets, Gold and Mining Stocks fits into that theme of weaker Dollars. We’re seeing strength in both develop market currencies and emerging.We’re seeing that strength in both developed market currencies and emerging.
Within the U.S., the relative strength continues to be in Financials and Technology, what I would consider to be the two most important sectors in America. Industrials and Transportation stocks look to rebound here as well. The weight of the evidence is suggesting that we want to be buying weakness in stocks, including the narrowing of credit spreads in the Bond Market and the outperformance from European and US Banks.
Here is the video in full where I lay out my best case for the coming weeks and months:
Long Precious Metals has been a big theme for us this year. I still think this is an area we need to be involved with and the weight-of-the-evidence is suggesting higher prices for the entire space.
Today I want to point out the recent breakout in Swiss Franc Futures. Historically there is a high positive correlation between this contract and the price of Gold. As we break out to new multi-year highs in Swissy, Gold looks likely to follow along: [Read more…]
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
We’ve seen an increase in volatility in the stock market this past week but it has not spilled over into the commodities, currencies or interest rate markets. We’ll discuss the current market environment and how we want to responsibly manage risk. A list of trade ideas with risk vs reward opportunities skewed in our favor will be the focus of this call. We want to err in the direction of the underlying trend and we will do our best to identify that throughout the call.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Thursday February 15th at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
I don’t like how many oversold conditions have been hit in the major indexes and most sectors. I’ve tried my best to point out the stocks showing both relative strength and momentum. But there are an awful lot of charts I see where oversold conditions in momentum is a problem. So the question becomes, is a retest of the lows necessary for stocks to continue higher? [Read more…]
Studying the behavior of market participants is something that we do on a daily basis, whether we recognize it or not. Especially as Technical Analysts who focus on changes in price at very specific levels, understanding the psychology behind why investors are behaving in certain ways is part of that process. Dr. Daniel Crosby is an excellent resource for investors looking to learn more about themselves and investor psychology. In this conversation we discuss the cognitive behavior traits seen on a daily basis from investors with elevated levels of stress due to active positions in the market. Recognizing these flaws is step 1 in our journey to learn more about ourselves so we can be in a position to make the best decisions possible in order to succeed. This is a podcast episode that I have wanted to record for a while now because I think it’s a good breakup from the more traditional market analysis and commentary. I hope this conversations inspires you to take a step back and become more aware of what you’re doing and why you’re doing it. I believe the more self-aware we are, the more efficiently and intelligently we can move forward as market participants.
The market is never going to give us what we want. We have to take what the market gives us. Play the hand we’re given, not the hand we wish we had. What worked in one market environment is not going to work in another. That’s why all those filters fail so frequently, because you’re trying to take something from the market instead of taking what it is giving us.
This week, a spike in volatility caused forced selling in stock index vehicles that trickled down to ETFs and individual stocks. We did not see any stress, however, in credit markets, currencies or any of the commodities like Crude Oil or Gold. This is further evidence that we want to continue be buyers of weakness, like we have been throughout all of last year and most of 2016. There will be periods where we want to be sellers of strength, but I don’t believe that is the correct approach today. [Read more…]
I thought this would be a good time to share some of my thoughts on position sizing. I’ve noticed this week many people who never mentioned a futures contract are now opining on the futures market at all hours of the night. I know what that feels like. I’ve been there. 2008 was an amazing experience for me. It’s not the lifestyle that I want to live. Sleeping at night is healthy. If my positions are too big, I’m not sleeping.
To me, the key to avoiding bad decisions is to keep stress and emotional levels low. It’s hard to do that when there is too much money involved for you to handle responsibly. So we want to identify how much is too much. It’s not an easy answer and most likely something you’ll learn over time. When you get that feeling like you’ve just been punched in the stomach, you’re probably too big. You’ll know it when you feel it. Most of us have been there, multiple times. [Read more…]