While so many people seem to be focused on the major US Indexes like the S&P500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching the irrelevant 20,000 level, I prefer to focus on individual stocks and sectors. There are areas of strength, like Technology obviously, and areas of weakness like Healthcare and Consumer Staples. Stocks are like investors, there are winners and losers. I prefer to be a winning investor focused on winning stocks, wouldn’t you? Today we’re taking a look at Technology as it quietly breaks out again to new highs. [Read more…]
When you talk about sectors that have been out of favor for a long time, it is hard not to think about the Shippers. Although as a group they bottomed out in February last year along with the S&P500 and a lot of other major indexes and sectors, they haven’t really done much ever since. It’s been more of a sideways, frustrating grind for anyone involved, both longs and shorts.
This week I dug a little deeper into this space and I wanted to share some of my findings. Also note that some of these stocks are not exactly mega-caps. They’re poor little shippers. So before doing anything, make sure you check for enough liquidity to fit your parameters. Some are also much smaller market-caps than we’re used to talking about here, so just a heads up. [Read more…]
When we look at stocks that continuously sell off when they hit a specific area, we call that “resistance”. But all that really means is that the market is suggesting there are more sellers than buyers near a given price. There is overhead supply of shares, for whatever the reason. We’re not interested in knowing why, we just want to know if there is resistance or not. In some cases, stocks will “break out” above that overhead resistance, proving to us mathematically that the overwhelming amount of sellers at that given area has now been absorbed by an overwhelming amount of buyers for the stock. [Read more…]
Here is the video recording of the January 2017 Monthly Conference Call for Members Only
In the call we discuss:
- Strength in the Major U.S. Indexes
- Foreign Markets Are Confirming That Strength
- US Sectors Relative to S&P500
- US Sectors & Sub-Sectors
- Individual Stock Trade Ideas
- Commodities & Currencies
- US Interest Rates & Bonds
As I mentioned recently, I’ve been working with some new technology and it’s allowing me to easily share analysis in a much more detailed way from a sub-sector perspective. In the first top/down review last week we looked at the Media stocks. Today I want to take a deep dive into the precious metals market and really drill down how we want to approach this market. There is more sensitivity when it comes to participants in this market so knowing that is advantageous. We want to 1) recognize this added sensitivity and 2) try to take advantage of that for profit. [Read more…]
There is something fishy happening in the bond market these days. Sentiment is hitting historic bearish extremes as US Interest Rates have fallen over the past month. This to me seems like a “too little too late” sort of thing from those who missed the bond sell-off that began last summer. If you recall, we had been ultra-bearish bonds (bullish rates) since the middle of the summer (see: August 3, 2016). That worked great and all of our targets were hit in the 4th quarter. Since December, we’ve been approaching the bond market from the long side and sentiment these days is reiterating why we would still rather err on the bullish side moving forward. [Read more…]
One of the things I’ve been working on behind the scenes is building the technology necessary to deliver my sub-sector analysis. Until now, you guys only see the end results. Through the Chartbook, I’ve been able give you access to my analysis on many things, including the sector and sub-sector ETFs. Once I’ve concluded that I like a particular sector, long or short, I’ll then break down the components of that sector to find stocks that can participate in direction of my overall thesis. I share those with you on the weekly letters, monthly conference calls and quarterly playbooks. Moving forward, I’m going to be sending you individual deep dives into different US sub-sectors when I see something that stands out.
Today’s deep dive analysis is on Media Stocks. This is a sub-sector of the overall Consumer Discretionary space: [Read more…]
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
This year has started off how we wanted it to and I will be following up on many of the big ideas we discussed in the Q1 Playbook that I published in late December. I’ve spent most of this week doing a deep dive into a lot of the sub-sectors to find where some of the strength lies underneath the surface. A good example has been the strength Medical Devices within the underperforming Healthcare space. But there are several more out there that we’ll talk about.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday January 18, 2016 at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- What This Breakout in FTSE 100 Means To The Stock Market
- It’s Getting Really Hard Not To Be Bullish US Dollars
- How Low Can Euro Go?
- Google Went Out At New All-time Weekly Closing Highs This week
- Facebook Never Broke Below $114. Is It A Long Now?
- Why 5-year Yields Are The Best Tell For Interest Rates
- Crude Oil Went Out At New 52-week Closing Highs
- The Media’s Irresponsible Behavior Regarding Dow 20,000
- What This Bullish Sentiment Towards The S&P500 Means Moving Forward
I’m extremely fortunate to have a front row seat to the most incredible display of human emotions in the history of mankind. Every day I get to watch markets move up and down based on fear and greed competing with one another at all times. One of the things I find most interesting is how humans tend to behave at the beginning of a perceived cycle. For you guys who think these psychological events don’t impact the stock market, you’re crazy. Seasonality is something I study very closely, particularly when markets ignore seasonal tendencies. [Read more…]
US Treasury Bonds have been a market that we’ve been watching very closely over the past couple of months. Remember this had been a favorite short of mine since the Summer, but all of our downside targets were hit in the 4th quarter. Since then, it has no longer been a short, and we’ve been waiting for it to set up to be a long for a mean reversion. Here is what is now going on this week: [Read more…]
The year 2016 is now in the books. As market participants, it is our job to prepare for the coming quarter. We don’t care much for year end targets. Those are just a marketing gimmick for wall street sell side firms. The media irresponsibly parades these historically wrong sell side analysts around on the tv and radio and have all sorts of gimmicky specials. We don’t have time for that. We’re here to make money in the market. So rather than making a list of the “Top 10” this or that, or blatantly making up a number to put as an S&P500 target for a year from now, I thought it would add value to walk you through my entire process as I prepare for the first quarter of 2017.
We’re going to go step by step on how I analyze markets. First we’ll start with the major US Indexes, both long-term and short-term. Then we’ll move on to the US Sectors relative to the rest of the market followed by the US Sectors and sub-sectors on an absolute basis. Next we’ll look at the globally to see if international markets are confirming what we’re seeing in the US or if they are diverging. In order to finish up our macro analysis, we’ll then take a deep dive into commodities, currencies and interest rate markets. Once we have put the entire world into context with respect macro money flow, we can then narrow it down to the individual stock level. There are a lot of names that have hit the upside objectives that we gave them in the Summer. But there are just as many names that have not hit our upside targets and also some new stocks that are just now perking up.
This is JC’s Playbook to Profit In Q1: [Read more…]