We’re in the market to make money. It should not matter whether that money is made in Energy stocks, Technology, U.S. Equities, European or Chinese. The point is to find opportunities as they come, wherever they come from. I think as we progress into 2017 it is becoming very clear to me that we need to be focused on what is going on in India. Whether we’re looking at the currency or the stock market, something interesting is happening here and I think it would be irresponsible of us to ignore. [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- Why Neutral Has Been A Great Approach Over The Past Month
- Consolidations In Germany, Canada and London Appear Continuation In Nature
- What The Strength In Italian Stocks Means To Me
- This Breakout In Tesla Shares Is For Real
- Bitcoin Is The Strongest Currency On Earth
- Silver Speculators Put On Historic Long Positions
- The US Dollar Index Is In A Long-term Uptrend
- What We Need To See To Become Bullish Stocks Again
- Why 2.3% in US 10-year Yields Is The Level To Watch
I’m in New York City this week attending a couple of investing conferences so I went by the Nasdaq to chat with Business News Network about the current market environment. I’ve been consistently bullish since last year with an upside target in the S&P500 near 2335 and that objective was achieved last month. Now we’re starting to see the breadth of momentum deteriorating on the most recent highs. The 2.3% level in the U.S. 10-year yield is the big area we’re watching. I think the resolution here in rates will tell us a lot about risk appetite for stocks as we enter the second quarter.
Here is the interview in full (requires flash player): [Read more…]
Last week the Nasdaq100 went out at new all-time weekly closing highs. While that might seem like a bullish characteristic on the surface, I think it’s important to recognize what is happening within the actual index itself. Like I always try and reiterate, this is not a “stock market”, it is a market of stocks. Today we’re going to take a look at what is actually going on here. [Read more…]
This is JC’s Playbook to Profit In Q2: [Read more…]
One of the most important tools we have as technicians is the ability to measure momentum. Remember, buy side fund managers are obsessed with looking for stocks and assets showing momentum. They hate sitting in things that aren’t doing anything. Whether you’re a buy side fund manager or not, it’s important to think this way. Opportunity cost (where else you can invest that money) is important too. Looking for stocks with bullish momentum characteristics is something we want to do when markets are in an uptrend. When momentum starts to fade, it’s a heads up that price is likely to follow.
Today I want to focus particular attention on the breadth of momentum. We want to approach this as a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are many components that drive these indexes, sometime more than others depending on the index. We can focus on particular areas like energy or financials, or different market caps large or small. I also want to know how momentum in the entire market is doing: Are we seeing positive momentum characteristics or negative ones?
Here is the video recording of the March 2017 Monthly Conference Call for Members Only
In the call we discuss:
- Bearish Momentum Divergences All Over
- Targets Hit All Over
- Leaders Are Failing
- Intermarket Signals Flash Warnings
- Sentiment Status
- Which Weak Names Do We Short?
- Commodities and Currencies
- Rates and Bond Trade
I’m sure by now you’ve had the time to digest the never ending headlines about an 8-year anniversary of a bull market for the S&P500. The problem with all of them is that the S&P500 has NOT been in a bull market for 8 years. In fact, there is a very strong argument to make that it could have just hit its one-year anniversary. Also, let’s remember the motivations of the people who are suggesting that the S&P500 is entering the 9th year of a single bull market. In a majority of cases they are purposely misleading you for personal gain.
It’s important to identify that the one single reason these people are using is actually a small technicality that they are irresponsibly pointing out and choosing to isolate as the sole basis for this conclusion. The single reason they are using to suggest that the S&P500 is entering its 9th year of a bull market is because in 2011 the S&P500 fell only 19.38% from peak to trough on a closing basis and not 20%. Again, let me stress that this is the ONLY data point they are using to claim we are in an 8-year bull market. And to make matters worse, their reasoning is because it fell 19.38% on a closing basis and not 20%? WHAT?? [Read more…]
Emerging markets have been a real laggard. While developed markets around the world have been making new highs, it’s just now that emerging markets are catching up. This week the MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund $EEM broke out to the highest level since the summer of 2015. This comes after 7 months of sideways consolidation: [Read more…]
It’s hard to ignore certain market moves that tend to be very rare. Bullish outside days that engulf the prior period are one of those. I think this is exactly what we saw this week in the AMEX Arline Index and it is something we want to respect. This is especially the case if you consider where this bullish reversal took place, just below important support. [Read more…]