Scott Redler has been trading for almost 20 years. He’s been through the ups and downs in the market on a daily basis and that is something I have a tremendous amount of respect for. Not many people can say this and still be alive and doing better than ever. I’m happy for him and could not be more thrilled to have him as a guest on the podcast. Today Scott is the Chief Strategic Officer at T3 Live where he gets to trade throughout the day as well as share his ideas with the world every single day of the week. In this conversation, Scott walks us through a normal day in his world, what he’s currently seeing in Technology and Energy stocks, where he did well last year and some interesting thoughts on the crypto-currency world. What I loved about this episode is that we have a trader speaking from the heart and letting us into his head so we can all become better and wiser investors. I really enjoyed this and I hope you do as well. [Read more…]
Introducing the “Allstarcharts USA Next 50 Index”
As many of you already know, I do a lot of work on stock markets all over the world. It’s part of my weight-of-the-evidence approach, but it also gives me the opportunity to learn from investors and traders who come from completely different cultures and bring a unique perspective. How else can we learn if not by exposing ourselves to new things?
Recently I was going through my India Nifty workbook where I keep all of my notes on the India Indexes like the NIFTY50, NIFTY500, NIFTY100, NIFTY Mid-caps, etc. It’s a very similar workbook to the one I keep for the United States where I include the S&P500, DJIA, Russell2000, etc. I consider all of this to be the “top” of my top/down approach to equities. We start with the indexes, work our way down to the sectors and industry groups and ultimately to the individual stock level.
The NSE, or National Stocks Exchange of India, has this Index that they call the NIFTY NEXT 50. This index represents the next 50 companies that are not part of the NIFTY50, but still within the NIFTY100. What I noticed last week was that the NIFTY50 was hitting our upside objectives, while the NIFTY NEXT 50 was already in the process of exceeding our targets and beginning a new leg higher. I was getting signals from the NIFTY NEXT 50 that I wasn’t getting from the original NIFTY50.
While I wasn’t really that amazed at how helpful this was for me, because this is why we look at all the indexes, I was a little disappointed that we don’t have something similar in the United States. We have the Dow Jones Industrial Average with 30 stocks and we have the 20 stocks in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, but we don’t have what would theoretically be the next 30 (or 50 total) in line in an organized format.
With the beauty of a little math and some great technology, I just built my own. And it’s already becoming a helpful tool. In fact, I find it so helpful that I will be adding it to our group of Indexes this month. I will also be adding 2 additional workbooks to my Chartbook which include the Dow Industrials Next 30 stocks and the Dow Transports Next 20 stocks, giving us our very own USA Next 50 Index. [Read more…]
Stock Market Indexes Point To Longer Uptrend
We want to approach the market from the top/down and look at it from different perspectives. Today I want to point to two indexes in particular that tell two separate stories but each suggests higher prices are coming for stocks in India.
There are many different Indexes representing equities in India and they are each part of a group of stocks that share common characteristics. The idea is to look at all of them and use each one as a piece of a giant puzzle. [Read more…]
Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going
It’s hard not to reflect on the past 12 months as we celebrate the New Year with our friends and family. For me it’s both a blessing and a curse. While it’s exciting to begin 2018 on a fresh note, I really didn’t want 2017 to end. It’s been an amazing year of learning and growing as an investor and a business man. It’s not easy, but every challenge brings its own lessons and rewards. It’s never a loss if you can learn from the experience.
Today I wanted to share what I’m thinking about the past year and what I’m expecting as we enter 2018. I do this because I believe it’s therapeutic to put thoughts down on paper. I encourage everyone to keep some sort of journal, whether in a public forum like me or private. It’s also important to me to continue to think out loud so readers can better understand where I’m coming from. I think we always need to know who is writing and producing the content we are consuming. Whether it’s via text, audio, video or otherwise.
This is who I am: [Read more…]
[Premium] My 2018 Stock Market Outlook From The Top/Down
We do not make end of 2018 forecasts. I think it’s irresponsible to think that we have any idea of what will happen a year from now. We want to reevaluate our thesis as time goes on and new data comes in. This reevaluation process occurs consistently throughout the entire year. How else can we manage risk responsibly? Are we supposed to place our bets after New Years and just hope for the best? Come on.
Take a deep breath. Forget everything we did this year and only think about where we are today. The idea is to keep an open mind and keep every option available. If we’ve loved something in 2017, that doesn’t mean we can’t hate it in 2018. Just because we’ve been shorting something this year, doesn’t mean we can’t be buyers in the next coming quarters. We’re not here to be right, we’re here to make money. We can’t forget that and let ego take priority over profitability. It’s important to be aware of our cognitive behavior patterns and this is one of them.
Lastly, we want to ignore what the year-to-date returns were for different asset classes. I think the arbitrary Jan 1 to Dec 31st performance doesn’t help us identify the direction of primary trends. So to point out that because one asset did better than another asset throughout 2017 does not necessarily mean one is in an uptrend as the other is not. We want to judge each and every asset on its own merit whether it is a stock, index, sector, commodity, currency or intermarket relationship.
Today we will be focusing specifically on the stock market. We’ll go sector by sector and bring in what we’re seeing internationally to develop a thesis. Then we’ll break it down to individual stock ideas with favorable risk vs reward opportunities. Don’t think of this like we need to buy all of the stocks mentioned here. It’s really to get an idea of what we should be looking for, and then if there are some of these specific ideas that meet our objectives and risk parameters, then even better!
We’re here to be very selfish and picky. This isn’t about giving all of them a chance. We’re here to only buy the best stocks that we feel meet our specific goals. They are different for all of us. Here I am presenting what I think tells the story for the current stock market environment and then point out specific pockets of strength so that we can try and profit from them.
Ping me if you have any questions:
[Premium India] Members-Only Conference Call Wednesday January 17th at 7PM IST
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts India Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the India Share Market. We take a look at all of the NSE Indexes and Sectors as well as some of our own custom indexes. At Allstarcharts we have become known around the world for the top/down approach to stocks. After we analyze each of the indexes and sectors and have identified where the strength and weakness lies, then we break it down to individual stock opportunities. By having momentum, relative strength and market trend in our favor, the probabilities of success increase dramatically.
We’ve been bullish towards Indian and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way down to more short-term to intermediate-term investing ideas. This will also include other assets like the US Dollar, Euro, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil.
I’ll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday January 17rd at 7PM IST. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
TV Appearance on FOX Business: U.S. Stocks, Bitcoin & Steel
I don’t make as many TV appearances as I used to when I lived in New York City, but when I’m town I love to swing by the FOX Business studios to chat with my old pal Liz Claman. She respects our Technical approach and understands the value that we bring to both institutional and retail investors.
This week I sat down with her to discuss the risk vs reward opportunities we currently see in the S&P500, Bitcoin and Steel Dynamics $STLD. I think this conversation was quick and to the point, just how we like it.
Here is the interview in full: [Read more…]
Want To Invest? Invest In Yourself!
Pretty much every day for the past 15 years I’ve been asked the same question: What should I invest in? The way I get asked is always changing, of course. It’s been, “How many houses should I buy in Miami since real estate only goes up?” to, “Which marijuana penny stock should I buy?” to, “Which crypto do I buy” (not if. which one?). The “sexy assets” of each era are all different, but the idea is the same. Because of my interest in markets, this question is constantly fired my way.
The answer I give isn’t always well received, but it comes from the bottom of my heart. If you want to invest, where better to do that than in yourself? Go buy a book and spend the time to read it. Go reach out to someone you look up to and buy them a drink, or coffee or lunch and learn from them. Go travel to a far away land and meet with the locals. All of these “investments” are probably going to go a lot further than the litecoin you just bought because your nephew told you it’s a good idea and you saw someone talking about it on the tv.
I am really lucky that I learned this very early on and it has helped me exponentially more than I could have ever imagined. I had always hoped that it was the right thing to be doing, especially when I was younger, but I didn’t actually know. Other than their 401ks and some mutual funds, my parents are not “market junkies” like me and a lot of my friends. I always went to them for advice on pretty much every other topic, and still do. But when it comes to markets, trading, investor psychology and portfolio management, it’s my trips to Asia, the books I’ve read, the mentors I’ve had I have and the trust in the process that has gotten me to where I am today, and hopefully where I’m still going in the future.
Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. Sure, I love great food, drinks, family and football. But the reason that Thursday means so much to me is because I truly believe I am one of the luckiest people in the entire world. I have everything to be thankful for and I think about this every single day. Thanksgiving is the day that we all celebrate that together. For me, it’s truly Thanksgiving every day.
This week I was in New York City running around in meetings and doing a little tv spot from the Nasdaq. I got stuck in the stupid subway on my way downtown so I got off in Soho and jumped in a cab to the Financial District. Coincidentally, the cab driver decided to take Lafayette Street through Tribeca and we drove by my first apartment in New York City. “Apartment” is a strong word. It was actually an NYU dorm that I lived in with 5 other guys 15 years ago while I interned at Merrill Lynch. It really hit me hard how long I’ve come since that summer. I almost started to cry.
Today I just wanted to take the time to thank everyone who has helped me over the past decade and a half. There are more of you than I can even list in a single blog post and you know who you are. I don’t know how I can ever pay you back for everything you’ve done for me.
The only thing I can think of is to share a collection of insights that I’ve learned throughout my career. I will continue to add to this list of material, but for now here is some of the stuff I’ve picked up from people much smarter and more experienced than me. If you read any of these, or all of these, or take a trip to Southeast Asia or read a book or even take someone to lunch, the point I want to make is to invest in yourself. I think that’s probably the best investment you can ever make. Invest in your mind, your body and your awareness. [Read more…]
- « Previous Page
- 1
- …
- 237
- 238
- 239
- 240
- 241
- …
- 470
- Next Page »