As Technicians we like to use the phrase “the bigger the base, the higher in space” when talking about breakouts from consolidations. Long periods of indecisive price action build a lot of potential energy that is then released once a stock breaks out of its range. This applies to any asset class on any timeframe because the psychology behind the pattern is exactly the same. We’ve written about bases before and they’re common in our work, so click here if you’re interested in learning more about this pattern. [Read more…]
As It Turns Out, This Is Not The End Of Retail As We Know It
Last summer I wrote a pretty controversial post about the fact that everyone just assumed retailers were all going bankrupt and buying their stocks was foolish. My argument at the time was the exact opposite: I felt that to not be buying retail stocks was irresponsible. Here is that post titled, “Is This Really The End Of Retail As We Know It?”. There many stocks at the time that presented us with well defined risk with rewards exponentially greater than any risk we were taking. That worked out very well for us.
At this point, we’re still hearing this short retail narrative from stock market bears digging for anything they can think of to not admit they were very wrong. You see, that’s the difference between people who make money and those who don’t: the ability to change your mind. Remember, we’re not here to be right, we’re here to make money. Check your ego at the door or this market is going to rip your face off, as it has done to many retail bears.
One of my big arguments at the time was that this “Head & Shoulders Top” that everyone was pointing to wasn’t that at all. I was in the camp at the time, and still am, that this was just a consolidation within an uptrend on its way to resolving higher. Here is what this looked like last Summer, and what it’s done since then: [Read more…]
Why This Could Be A Historic Top In The US Bond Market
I’m not the kind of guy that likes to give funny names to price patterns in the market. For me, it’s more about the implications of that market behavior and less about what we call it. Today I want to take a look at US Treasury Bonds and what some price observers might refer to as a ‘Head & Shoulders Top’.
The reason this is a popular pattern is because, as humans, it is easy for us to identify and relate to. Each of us have a pair of shoulders and a head that stands in between and above them. In today’s chart, the Head and 2 Shoulders are fairly easy to point out. We’re looking at the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT: [Read more…]
[Premium India] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording May 2018
This is the recording from the live May Conference Call for Members of the New Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY and SENSEX Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframe. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full:
[Premium] Monthly Conference Call Video Recording May 2018
This is the video recording of the May 2018 Conference Call. After reviewing approximately 5000 charts from all over the world, these are my conclusions.
First of all, there are exponentially more bullish looking stocks than bearish ones. This goes for both U.S. Stocks and those from all over the world. The Credit Markets are confirming this bullish outlook for stocks with risk appetite coming from the largest market in the world. Any volatility in Stocks this year has not spilled over into Fixed Income or Forex Markets, again confirming the lack of risk aversion from institutions.
There are plenty of opportunities to make money this quarter and I tried my best to lay them out in an easy to follow process. Here is the video in full: [Read more…]
About Those Historic Breakouts In Taiwan & Thailand
Stocks in the United States aren’t up because of what is happening in New York or Washington DC. They are up despite of what is going on in those places. Stocks in the U.S. are up because stocks all over the world are up. That’s how this works.
So when we are trying to figure out whether the next move in stocks is higher or lower, and whether we should be buying them or selling them, we don’t just want to look within U.S. borders. By doing that we’re missing the bigger picture. We care less about the behavior of stocks in our own country and more about stocks as an asset class. [Read more…]
[Premium India] Members-Only Conference Call Tuesday May 15th at 7PM IST
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts India Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the India Share Market. We take a look at all of the NSE Indexes and Sectors as well as some of our own custom indexes. At Allstarcharts we have become known around the world for the top/down approach to stocks. After we analyze each of the indexes and sectors and have identified where the strength and weakness lies, then we break it down to individual stock opportunities. By having momentum, relative strength and market trend in our favor, the probabilities of success increase dramatically.
We’ve been bullish towards Indian and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way down to more short-term to intermediate-term investing ideas. This will also include other assets like the US Dollar, Euro, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil.
I’ll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday May 15th at 7PM IST. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
[Premium] Deep Dive Into Software Stocks
I am a firm believer that the Stock Market, U.S. or otherwise, is in an uptrend that began in early 2016, or summer of 2016. You can buy me beers one day and we’ll discuss less relevant data points, like this 6 month difference, that dorks like me enjoy arguing about over beers. The point is, however, that this is a new bull market, not a 9-year old one like some people like to tell you.
So if we’re in a bull market, then consolidations within this uptrend should resolve in the direction of the underlying trend, which is up in our opinion. The first industry group to break out from this consolidation the past couple of months and make new highs is Software. It’s a major standout guys and we need to pay attention. So here’s a breakdown of the sector components and which ones we want to be buying right now. [Read more…]
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