For me it’s not just about buying a group of stocks, but about buying the strongest members of that group. I am a firm believer that by erring on the long side of relative strength or erring on the short side of relative weakness, the odds of a continuation in trend is much greater than the odds of a reversal. Therefore, there is a higher probability of success by following trend, rather than trying to fight trends. So today I want to talk about how we’re going to take this top/down approach and apply it to find profitable trades this month in Energy stocks. [Read more…]
Hey guys, I could really use your help with this. I’m trying to a consensus answer on the list of the 10 most important liquid assets on earth. I’ve given this a lot of thought and have come up with mine. But I want to know what you think. I’ll post the poll results at the end of the week. Here is my list in no particular order: [Read more…]
I’m lucky that I get a chance to read a lot and converse with really smart market participants all the time. So there are many lessons that I’ve gotten to learn the easy way, from my predecessors and colleagues. But there are some lessons that damn it you just need to learn on your own. For me one of those lessons was trading stocks near flat 200 day moving averages. And when I say “stock”, this can refer to an ETF, Commodity Futures, Index, etc. But when they’re near their directionless longer-term smoothing mechanism, you’re begging for trouble. If you like headaches, trade stocks near flat 200 day moving averages. [Read more…]
Here is the video recording of the February 2017 Monthly Conference Call for Members Only
In the call we discuss:
- Globally Stocks Are In Uptrends
- Stocks In US Are In Uptrends
- New Highs Are Not Bearish
- Low VIX Is Not Bearish
- US Sectors and Stocks To Buy
- Stocks – Where Is Bull Thesis Wrong?
- Commodities and Currencies
- Interest Rates
I’m lucky in that I learned early in my career that we’re in a global market place. The United States, while it is certainly important, is just one country within a massive interconnected global market. We see this more and more every day. Many choose to focus on US Stocks, and that’s fine. But I think even if that’s the case, approaching the market globally is not only an advantage, but becoming more of a necessity with each day that passes.
Today I want to share a chart that really tells an interesting story about what is actually happening in stocks around the world. I’ve taken the 10 largest exchanges in the world, including both developed and emerging markets, and equally-weighted each of them to create an All Star Charts Top 10 Global Exchanges Index. You can see embedded in the chart, the exact list of components: [Read more…]
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
Over the past 10 days I have been traveling throughout southeast Asia learning new strategies and perspectives from local traders and investors. I’m lucky that I truly love what I do and the evolution of my process is far from complete. Every day the world is getting smaller and more interconnected than ever. Although cultures my be very different, the human psyche is universal. Our emotions controlled by fear and greed can be seen everywhere from New York City, to St. Louis, MO to London, to Kuala Lumpur. The difference is simply the perspective from which each investor sees the world, and therefore the marketplace. Trying to get inside the mind of these investors has been a fascinating process and I firmly believe that it gives me a leg up over everyone else.
This month’s conference call is going to be an important one as some markets are hitting our short-term tactical targets while others are resolving their recent consolidations higher. We have a lot to discuss! It will be held on Wednesday February 22nd at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
Today I wanted to talk about something that I’ve never really written about here before but I think is a really important point that I want to make sure I get across. I’m lucky that I get to chat with investors all over the world on a daily basis. Whether you are a professional investor with 30 years of experience, or a student in Hong Kong who just made his/her first trade, I am always willing to chat. Not only does this help me learn about different strategies, objectives and cultures, but also helps give me perspective from all sorts of different angles.
A common theme that I get a lot is regarding chart patterns and pattern recognition: “JC how did you know that consolidation would resolve higher?”. Other times I get, “JC how did you know that was a failed breakout and how come this example $XYZ is one you don’t consider to be a failed breakout?” The explanations you guys give me make plenty of sense, “But momentum is diverging with prices making new highs!” And in most cases you’re probably right. But to me, it’s bigger than that. The analysis is not just about one pattern or one divergence or even just one chart. It’s about taking these patterns and divergences within the context of a much larger, more macro thesis. [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- The Direction of the Trend for Stocks is Higher
- I’m in Asia Learning and Sharing With Professionals and Students
- What Low Volatility Means To Me
- Which Cyber Security Stocks Do We Want To Own?
- Aerospace & Defense Is Breaking Out – Now What?
- What Happens If U.S. Rates Break Last Month’s Lows?
The first ever Chart Summit was a huge success. I can’t believe how awesome that was. Considering this was 100% virtual and presenters and audience members were logging in remotely from every part of the world, we managed to get through it without many hiccups. Most of the videos have been published correctly and audience members are able to go back and get through about 95% of all the content. Not bad. I think we’ll take it.
The feedback has been amazing so thank you to everyone who helped make this possible, including our presenters, our sponsors and, most importantly, to our audience who showed up with enthusiasm to learn! I love to see so much excitement towards the discipline of Technical Analysis. I did everything I could with the hope that my predecessors who first broke barriers for us Technicians back in the 1960s and 70s would be proud of what we were able to accomplish last week.
Here is the video of my presentation where I go over my top/down approach to markets, including examples of what we’re seeing in today’s environment. In order to bring some additional value, I also discuss my approach towards risk management and the arithmetic I use for position sizing. [Read more…]
This weekend was one of the most amazing professional experiences of my life. I’m fortunate that I have friends who are really smart and willing to give up some of their time on a Saturday to share their knowledge and wisdom with investors all over the world. The turn out for Chart Summit exceeded all expectations and the feedback has been tremendous. This week, videos of all the presentations will be sent out to anyone and everyone who registered for the event www.chartsummit.com
As an added bonus to this amazing event, I wanted to walk everyone through my top/down approach to markets. From my perspective, unless you include global stock markets, commodities, forex and interest rates into your analysis, you’re really selling yourself short. It’s 2017. Even if you just trade or invest in U.S. stocks, taking a global intermarket approach to the marketplace is extremely beneficial. This is with respect to both idea generation and risk management. In addition, we first want to take a long-term view to get structural perspective and then look at daily charts showing just the past year for more short-term tactical opportunities. This process of using multiple timeframes can be seen throughout every asset class we analyze, whether it’s individual stocks like $AAPL, sectors like $GDX, currencies like the US Dollar, commodities like Crude Oil or indexes like the S&P500. [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- So Many US Indexes made New Weekly All-time Closing Highs
- New Highs Are Not A Bad Thing
- Breadth and International Indexes are Confirming US Strength
- Insurance Stocks Are Showing Strength
- Gold and Silver are still a Hot Mess
- Semiconductors Are The Strongest Sub-sector in America
- Chart Summit Was a Huge Success!