When we look at stocks that continuously sell off when they hit a specific area, we call that “resistance”. But all that really means is that the market is suggesting there are more sellers than buyers near a given price. There is overhead supply of shares, for whatever the reason. We’re not interested in knowing why, we just want to know if there is resistance or not. In some cases, stocks will “break out” above that overhead resistance, proving to us mathematically that the overwhelming amount of sellers at that given area has now been absorbed by an overwhelming amount of buyers for the stock. [Read more…]
Here is the video recording of the January 2017 Monthly Conference Call for Members Only
In the call we discuss:
- Strength in the Major U.S. Indexes
- Foreign Markets Are Confirming That Strength
- US Sectors Relative to S&P500
- US Sectors & Sub-Sectors
- Individual Stock Trade Ideas
- Commodities & Currencies
- US Interest Rates & Bonds
As I mentioned recently, I’ve been working with some new technology and it’s allowing me to easily share analysis in a much more detailed way from a sub-sector perspective. In the first top/down review last week we looked at the Media stocks. Today I want to take a deep dive into the precious metals market and really drill down how we want to approach this market. There is more sensitivity when it comes to participants in this market so knowing that is advantageous. We want to 1) recognize this added sensitivity and 2) try to take advantage of that for profit. [Read more…]
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.
This year has started off how we wanted it to and I will be following up on many of the big ideas we discussed in the Q1 Playbook that I published in late December. I’ve spent most of this week doing a deep dive into a lot of the sub-sectors to find where some of the strength lies underneath the surface. A good example has been the strength Medical Devices within the underperforming Healthcare space. But there are several more out there that we’ll talk about.
This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday January 18, 2016 at 7PM ET. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
In this week’s members-only letter we discuss the following topics:
- What This Breakout in FTSE 100 Means To The Stock Market
- It’s Getting Really Hard Not To Be Bullish US Dollars
- How Low Can Euro Go?
- Google Went Out At New All-time Weekly Closing Highs This week
- Facebook Never Broke Below $114. Is It A Long Now?
- Why 5-year Yields Are The Best Tell For Interest Rates
- Crude Oil Went Out At New 52-week Closing Highs
- The Media’s Irresponsible Behavior Regarding Dow 20,000
- What This Bullish Sentiment Towards The S&P500 Means Moving Forward
I’m extremely fortunate to have a front row seat to the most incredible display of human emotions in the history of mankind. Every day I get to watch markets move up and down based on fear and greed competing with one another at all times. One of the things I find most interesting is how humans tend to behave at the beginning of a perceived cycle. For you guys who think these psychological events don’t impact the stock market, you’re crazy. Seasonality is something I study very closely, particularly when markets ignore seasonal tendencies. [Read more…]
The year 2016 is now in the books. As market participants, it is our job to prepare for the coming quarter. We don’t care much for year end targets. Those are just a marketing gimmick for wall street sell side firms. The media irresponsibly parades these historically wrong sell side analysts around on the tv and radio and have all sorts of gimmicky specials. We don’t have time for that. We’re here to make money in the market. So rather than making a list of the “Top 10” this or that, or blatantly making up a number to put as an S&P500 target for a year from now, I thought it would add value to walk you through my entire process as I prepare for the first quarter of 2017.
We’re going to go step by step on how I analyze markets. First we’ll start with the major US Indexes, both long-term and short-term. Then we’ll move on to the US Sectors relative to the rest of the market followed by the US Sectors and sub-sectors on an absolute basis. Next we’ll look at the globally to see if international markets are confirming what we’re seeing in the US or if they are diverging. In order to finish up our macro analysis, we’ll then take a deep dive into commodities, currencies and interest rate markets. Once we have put the entire world into context with respect macro money flow, we can then narrow it down to the individual stock level. There are a lot of names that have hit the upside objectives that we gave them in the Summer. But there are just as many names that have not hit our upside targets and also some new stocks that are just now perking up.
This is JC’s Playbook to Profit In Q1: [Read more…]
What do you guys think? Is it over for Facebook?
I think we’re about to find out.
Here’s how’s I see it: [Read more…]
I like buying stocks that are going up. If there is anything that the market has taught us over the past hundred years is that market prices trend. The major averages, individual sectors, stocks, commodities, currencies, interest rates, they all trend. Sometimes these are uptrends that last years or even decades, sometimes they’re downtrends, and sometimes there is no trend and it’s just a sideways mess. Remember, recognizing a lack of trend is just as important as the first two. What I like even more is while a stock is going up the sell side likes it less and less. It’s completely counter intuitive to us who specifically look for trends to follow. They don’t think like us as market participants because they have different motivations. [Read more…]
I’ve been a full time technician for well over a decade. During this time, I’ve been lucky enough to meet and become close friends with some of the best and brightest technicians in the world. I regularly discuss the markets with them over email as well as the various conferences and speaking engagements that we all attend. We have spirited debates over what the market is going to do next, who has the better process for identifying opportunities and who nailed or missed the most recent big move. Without fail, I learn something new every time I have these types of discussions. So it got me thinking, and I realized that other traders and investors around the world would love to be a fly on the wall for these conversations and learn some new things too. It’s been my goal for the past year to make this a reality, and that day has finally come. [Read more…]
One of the more impressive moves that we’ve seen in 2016 is in the Industrial space. While we came into the year near multi-year lows on a relative basis (XLI/SPY), we entered December hitting new all-time highs relative to the S&P500. You want to talk about a dramatic change in relative strength? This is something we take very seriously, and definitely not something to ignore. We also want to keep in mind is that this relative strength started well before any election, US or otherwise. This got going in January.
Today we’re taking a look at the largest component in the Industrial sector: General Electric $GE, a stock that broke out earlier this year above a downtrend line from the all-time highs in 2000 and is still 30% below the 2007 highs. I think this is where we want to be looking: [Read more…]
Here is the video recording of the December 2016 Monthly Conference Call for Members Only
In the call we discuss:
- Major U.S. Indexes – October Conference Call vs Today
- Sentiment, Breadth & Seasonality US On Stocks
- US Sectors Relative Strength
- The US Dollar Dilemma
- International Indexes Breaking Out
- US Interest Rates
- When Do We Buy Bonds?